Author: Daii Produced by: Plain Language Blockchain The market is experiencing a major "bleed," with the "crypto fear and greed index" falling to 9 on November 16, marking its lowest point since the global market crash triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. As of November 18, although the index had rebounded slightly to 12, it remained in the "extreme fear" zone. Bitcoin, as the industry leader, not only lost the major psychological barrier of $100,000, but also touched a six-month low of $90,940 on the morning of November 18, triggering a sharp drop across altcoins. However, a perplexing paradox emerges: why is the level of panic in the market comparable to that in 2020 when the price was only $5,000, even though Bitcoin is still at a high price of over $90,000? 01. Why is the market so panicked? To understand this extreme fear, we must dissect the multiple factors that led to this storm. First, there are the shadows from the external macro world. The crypto market is no longer an isolated island; it is closely linked to the pulse of the global macroeconomy. The "Fed's Tightening Grip": The market had widely expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December, which was seen as the "last hope" to support risk assets. However, the Fed's hawkish stance completely shattered this expectation. Cutting rates is equivalent to "flooding" the market with liquidity, while maintaining high interest rates is equivalent to "turning off the tap." Liquidity was withdrawn, forcing investors to withdraw from high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. "Data Black Hole" and Uncertainty: Due to the previous 43-day US government shutdown, the release of key economic data (such as the employment report) was severely delayed. This led to investors and the Federal Reserve essentially "flying blind." The market's biggest pet peeve isn't bad news, but the absence of news. This uncertainty forced fund managers to choose risk aversion. Spillover effects of the “AI bubble”: Global tech stocks, particularly AI-related stocks seen as “market engines,” are experiencing significant corrections. For example, SoftBank’s massive sell-off of its Nvidia holdings has sparked concerns that the AI bubble may be bursting. Institutional investors, viewing cryptocurrencies and tech stocks as both “high-risk,” are simultaneously selling off both. If the macro environment provides the backdrop, then the collapse within the crypto ecosystem is the direct trigger for panic. This crisis is not only about prices, but also about the "narrative." This bull market is built on two major narrative cornerstones: “Institutional entry”: Represented by spot ETFs, this symbolizes the full acceptance of cryptocurrencies by traditional finance. "Hold for the Long Term": Represented by the HODL belief of "whales" and "diamond hands," they are believed to not sell during short-term fluctuations. In the storm of November 2025, both of these cornerstones simultaneously developed cracks. Narrative Collapse (Part 1): The “Betrayal” of the ETF Bitcoin ETFs, once considered the "engine" of this bull market, are now running backwards. The market has witnessed record net outflows. Data shows that so far in November alone, Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows exceeding $2.3 billion. One day (November 13th) saw net outflows of $866 million to $870 million, one of the worst outflow records since its listing. On-chain data company Glassnode has also confirmed that ETF flows have turned "moderately negative." Narrative Collapse (Part Two): The Whale's "Turning Around" This is one of the most unsettling internal signals. On-chain data shows that in early November, long-term holders engaged in a rare large-scale sell-off of approximately 815,000 BTC. Data platform Santiment also confirmed that since October 12, "whale" wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC have sold approximately 32,500 Bitcoins. It's not surprising that such fears arise when the market discovers that even the "market-saving heroes" can "betray" (ETF outflows) and that "believers" are also "cashing out" (whale sell-offs). 02. The Truth Behind the "Mass Asset Transfer" When extreme fear persists and worsens, the market enters a critical phase – “capitulation”. We are witnessing clear signs of surrender: Extreme sentiment readings: The fear index has fallen to the 9-18 range. Huge "realized losses": On-chain data shows that the market has just experienced "the largest realized loss day in the past six months." This means that massive amounts of assets were sold at prices lower than their purchase price, and people are "cutting their losses" and leaving the market. Anger and Blame on Social Media: Analysts point out that market bottoms are often accompanied by anger and finger-pointing. Data shows that the proportion of positive comments about BTC on social media has fallen to a monthly low. Panic-driven exodus of retail investors: The massive outflows from ETFs are seen as signs of “retail panic” and “capitulation”. However, the truth behind the "surrender" is not that "everyone is selling." Beneath the surface of panic, a complex and dramatic "mass transfer of assets" is taking place. The on-chain data clearly demonstrates this division: Who is selling? Mid-sized whales: Data shows that a key group of whales (holding 10-1000 BTC) turned net sellers in November. Santiment data shows that wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC have sold tens of thousands of Bitcoins in recent weeks. They are likely seasoned players who have made substantial profits and are choosing to cash out amidst macroeconomic uncertainty. Panic among retail investors: The massive outflows from ETFs and anxious discussions on social media suggest that retail investors who entered the market in the later stages of the bull market may be "cutting their losses" and leaving. Who is buying? Large strategic entities: Data shows that while mid-sized whales were selling, the largest strategic entities (holding >10,000 BTC) continued to increase their holdings in November, with a net increase of 10,700 BTC. According to data from CryptoQuant, during the market downturn, whales recorded the second-largest weekly net purchase of over 45,000 BTC in 2025. “Diamond Hand” Retail Investors: Other data shows that while some retail investors are panicking, “small retail wallets” (up to 10 BTC) continue to accumulate during the decline. Iconic figure: Amid market panic, Michael Saylor, one of Bitcoin's most prominent evangelists, announced on November 10 that his company had purchased 487 bitcoins worth $50 million, and publicly refuted any rumors that his company was selling. The conclusion is clear: "Surrender" is not a moment when everyone is selling. It is a moment when asset ownership undergoes the most dramatic transfer. Assets are shifting from weak-willed, emotional traders to strong-willed, rational long-term investors. The true "market bottom" is formed when panicked sellers run out of ammunition and rational buyers completely take over the market. 03. "Be greedy when others are fearful" In a market turmoil, we must draw upon the wisdom of the most famous contrarian investors in investment history, as well as cold, hard historical data. Warren Buffett famously said, "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." At its core, this famous quote represents a value-based psychological discipline. "Be fearful when others are greedy": This means that when the market is in a frenzy (the fear index is extremely high), asset prices may be irrationally overvalued. "Be greedy when others are fearful": This means that when the market is in a state of panic (with a very low fear index, such as the recent 9), asset prices may be irrationally undervalued. Panic creates an "excellent opportunity" for rational investors to buy quality assets at a discount. From this perspective, the "CryptoFear & Greed Index" is a quantitative indicator of the emotions of "others" as described by Buffett. A single-digit reading loudly proclaims through data: "Others are in a state of extreme fear!" So, does historical data support the idea of being "greedy" at this time? We reviewed some of the most famous moments of “extreme fear” in crypto history and tracked Bitcoin’s price performance afterward: Note: Historical performance data is an approximate analysis based on publicly available price charts and does not represent future earnings. Historical data clearly shows that "extreme fear" is a remarkable signal of long-term accumulation, but it is not a timer for precise short-term rebounds. The 2022 FTX crash demonstrates that even after the index hit an all-time low of 6, the market lingered at the bottom for over 90 days. This shows that "extreme fear" can persist for a long time. However, in all historical cases, buying at "extreme fear" points and holding for 180 days (six months) has consistently yielded significant positive returns. The lesson of history is clear: selling when the fear index falls into single digits has historically been a mistake. Instead, starting to accumulate shares in batches at that time, while requiring patience, offers a very high probability of success. 04. Buying at the bottom or catching a falling knife? As a rational crypto enthusiast, how should one act in the face of "extreme fear"? The fear index is not a crystal ball. We must emphasize the limitations of this index. It is not a predictive tool; it tells you how people feel now, not where the market will go tomorrow. It is a lagging indicator, reflecting panic that has already occurred. Never make trading decisions based solely on this single indicator. The true value of indices: combating your own inner demons. Its true value lies in being a psychological tool. Its purpose is to help you quantify market sentiment, thereby enabling you to combat your own irrational impulses. Combating FOMO (Fear of Missing Out): When the index reaches 90 (extreme greed), it warns you: "The market may be overheated, and it may be time to take profits instead of chasing the highs." Combating FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt): When the index falls to 10 (extreme fear), it warns you: "The market may be irrationally overcooled. Is this really the time to sell, or is it a discount offered by someone else?" Financial markets are like a pendulum swinging violently between the extremes of greed and fear. Today, that pendulum is firmly stuck to the "extreme fear" end. Your task is not to predict the precise turning point of the pendulum, but to use data and strategies to counteract its immense emotional pull as it swings to either extreme. 05. Summary Currently, the crypto fear and greed index has fallen to its lowest point since the COVID-19 pandemic, with the market gripped by "extreme fear." This panic stems from the double whammy of tightening macro liquidity (the Fed's hawkish stance) and a collapse of the internal narrative (record outflows from ETFs and rare sell-offs by "whales"). However, on-chain data shows that behind the panic selling, a massive asset transfer is underway: mid-sized whales and panicked retail investors are selling, while large strategic entities and steadfast retail investors are actively buying. Historical data suggests that extreme fear is a fairly good medium- to long-term buy signal. Therefore, for rational investors, the best strategy at present is not panic selling or blindly buying the dip, but rather to combine dollar cost averaging (DCA) with discipline amidst irrational market noise.Author: Daii Produced by: Plain Language Blockchain The market is experiencing a major "bleed," with the "crypto fear and greed index" falling to 9 on November 16, marking its lowest point since the global market crash triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020. As of November 18, although the index had rebounded slightly to 12, it remained in the "extreme fear" zone. Bitcoin, as the industry leader, not only lost the major psychological barrier of $100,000, but also touched a six-month low of $90,940 on the morning of November 18, triggering a sharp drop across altcoins. However, a perplexing paradox emerges: why is the level of panic in the market comparable to that in 2020 when the price was only $5,000, even though Bitcoin is still at a high price of over $90,000? 01. Why is the market so panicked? To understand this extreme fear, we must dissect the multiple factors that led to this storm. First, there are the shadows from the external macro world. The crypto market is no longer an isolated island; it is closely linked to the pulse of the global macroeconomy. The "Fed's Tightening Grip": The market had widely expected the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in December, which was seen as the "last hope" to support risk assets. However, the Fed's hawkish stance completely shattered this expectation. Cutting rates is equivalent to "flooding" the market with liquidity, while maintaining high interest rates is equivalent to "turning off the tap." Liquidity was withdrawn, forcing investors to withdraw from high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies. "Data Black Hole" and Uncertainty: Due to the previous 43-day US government shutdown, the release of key economic data (such as the employment report) was severely delayed. This led to investors and the Federal Reserve essentially "flying blind." The market's biggest pet peeve isn't bad news, but the absence of news. This uncertainty forced fund managers to choose risk aversion. Spillover effects of the “AI bubble”: Global tech stocks, particularly AI-related stocks seen as “market engines,” are experiencing significant corrections. For example, SoftBank’s massive sell-off of its Nvidia holdings has sparked concerns that the AI bubble may be bursting. Institutional investors, viewing cryptocurrencies and tech stocks as both “high-risk,” are simultaneously selling off both. If the macro environment provides the backdrop, then the collapse within the crypto ecosystem is the direct trigger for panic. This crisis is not only about prices, but also about the "narrative." This bull market is built on two major narrative cornerstones: “Institutional entry”: Represented by spot ETFs, this symbolizes the full acceptance of cryptocurrencies by traditional finance. "Hold for the Long Term": Represented by the HODL belief of "whales" and "diamond hands," they are believed to not sell during short-term fluctuations. In the storm of November 2025, both of these cornerstones simultaneously developed cracks. Narrative Collapse (Part 1): The “Betrayal” of the ETF Bitcoin ETFs, once considered the "engine" of this bull market, are now running backwards. The market has witnessed record net outflows. Data shows that so far in November alone, Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows exceeding $2.3 billion. One day (November 13th) saw net outflows of $866 million to $870 million, one of the worst outflow records since its listing. On-chain data company Glassnode has also confirmed that ETF flows have turned "moderately negative." Narrative Collapse (Part Two): The Whale's "Turning Around" This is one of the most unsettling internal signals. On-chain data shows that in early November, long-term holders engaged in a rare large-scale sell-off of approximately 815,000 BTC. Data platform Santiment also confirmed that since October 12, "whale" wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC have sold approximately 32,500 Bitcoins. It's not surprising that such fears arise when the market discovers that even the "market-saving heroes" can "betray" (ETF outflows) and that "believers" are also "cashing out" (whale sell-offs). 02. The Truth Behind the "Mass Asset Transfer" When extreme fear persists and worsens, the market enters a critical phase – “capitulation”. We are witnessing clear signs of surrender: Extreme sentiment readings: The fear index has fallen to the 9-18 range. Huge "realized losses": On-chain data shows that the market has just experienced "the largest realized loss day in the past six months." This means that massive amounts of assets were sold at prices lower than their purchase price, and people are "cutting their losses" and leaving the market. Anger and Blame on Social Media: Analysts point out that market bottoms are often accompanied by anger and finger-pointing. Data shows that the proportion of positive comments about BTC on social media has fallen to a monthly low. Panic-driven exodus of retail investors: The massive outflows from ETFs are seen as signs of “retail panic” and “capitulation”. However, the truth behind the "surrender" is not that "everyone is selling." Beneath the surface of panic, a complex and dramatic "mass transfer of assets" is taking place. The on-chain data clearly demonstrates this division: Who is selling? Mid-sized whales: Data shows that a key group of whales (holding 10-1000 BTC) turned net sellers in November. Santiment data shows that wallets holding 10 to 10,000 BTC have sold tens of thousands of Bitcoins in recent weeks. They are likely seasoned players who have made substantial profits and are choosing to cash out amidst macroeconomic uncertainty. Panic among retail investors: The massive outflows from ETFs and anxious discussions on social media suggest that retail investors who entered the market in the later stages of the bull market may be "cutting their losses" and leaving. Who is buying? Large strategic entities: Data shows that while mid-sized whales were selling, the largest strategic entities (holding >10,000 BTC) continued to increase their holdings in November, with a net increase of 10,700 BTC. According to data from CryptoQuant, during the market downturn, whales recorded the second-largest weekly net purchase of over 45,000 BTC in 2025. “Diamond Hand” Retail Investors: Other data shows that while some retail investors are panicking, “small retail wallets” (up to 10 BTC) continue to accumulate during the decline. Iconic figure: Amid market panic, Michael Saylor, one of Bitcoin's most prominent evangelists, announced on November 10 that his company had purchased 487 bitcoins worth $50 million, and publicly refuted any rumors that his company was selling. The conclusion is clear: "Surrender" is not a moment when everyone is selling. It is a moment when asset ownership undergoes the most dramatic transfer. Assets are shifting from weak-willed, emotional traders to strong-willed, rational long-term investors. The true "market bottom" is formed when panicked sellers run out of ammunition and rational buyers completely take over the market. 03. "Be greedy when others are fearful" In a market turmoil, we must draw upon the wisdom of the most famous contrarian investors in investment history, as well as cold, hard historical data. Warren Buffett famously said, "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." At its core, this famous quote represents a value-based psychological discipline. "Be fearful when others are greedy": This means that when the market is in a frenzy (the fear index is extremely high), asset prices may be irrationally overvalued. "Be greedy when others are fearful": This means that when the market is in a state of panic (with a very low fear index, such as the recent 9), asset prices may be irrationally undervalued. Panic creates an "excellent opportunity" for rational investors to buy quality assets at a discount. From this perspective, the "CryptoFear & Greed Index" is a quantitative indicator of the emotions of "others" as described by Buffett. A single-digit reading loudly proclaims through data: "Others are in a state of extreme fear!" So, does historical data support the idea of being "greedy" at this time? We reviewed some of the most famous moments of “extreme fear” in crypto history and tracked Bitcoin’s price performance afterward: Note: Historical performance data is an approximate analysis based on publicly available price charts and does not represent future earnings. Historical data clearly shows that "extreme fear" is a remarkable signal of long-term accumulation, but it is not a timer for precise short-term rebounds. The 2022 FTX crash demonstrates that even after the index hit an all-time low of 6, the market lingered at the bottom for over 90 days. This shows that "extreme fear" can persist for a long time. However, in all historical cases, buying at "extreme fear" points and holding for 180 days (six months) has consistently yielded significant positive returns. The lesson of history is clear: selling when the fear index falls into single digits has historically been a mistake. Instead, starting to accumulate shares in batches at that time, while requiring patience, offers a very high probability of success. 04. Buying at the bottom or catching a falling knife? As a rational crypto enthusiast, how should one act in the face of "extreme fear"? The fear index is not a crystal ball. We must emphasize the limitations of this index. It is not a predictive tool; it tells you how people feel now, not where the market will go tomorrow. It is a lagging indicator, reflecting panic that has already occurred. Never make trading decisions based solely on this single indicator. The true value of indices: combating your own inner demons. Its true value lies in being a psychological tool. Its purpose is to help you quantify market sentiment, thereby enabling you to combat your own irrational impulses. Combating FOMO (Fear of Missing Out): When the index reaches 90 (extreme greed), it warns you: "The market may be overheated, and it may be time to take profits instead of chasing the highs." Combating FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt): When the index falls to 10 (extreme fear), it warns you: "The market may be irrationally overcooled. Is this really the time to sell, or is it a discount offered by someone else?" Financial markets are like a pendulum swinging violently between the extremes of greed and fear. Today, that pendulum is firmly stuck to the "extreme fear" end. Your task is not to predict the precise turning point of the pendulum, but to use data and strategies to counteract its immense emotional pull as it swings to either extreme. 05. Summary Currently, the crypto fear and greed index has fallen to its lowest point since the COVID-19 pandemic, with the market gripped by "extreme fear." This panic stems from the double whammy of tightening macro liquidity (the Fed's hawkish stance) and a collapse of the internal narrative (record outflows from ETFs and rare sell-offs by "whales"). However, on-chain data shows that behind the panic selling, a massive asset transfer is underway: mid-sized whales and panicked retail investors are selling, while large strategic entities and steadfast retail investors are actively buying. Historical data suggests that extreme fear is a fairly good medium- to long-term buy signal. Therefore, for rational investors, the best strategy at present is not panic selling or blindly buying the dip, but rather to combine dollar cost averaging (DCA) with discipline amidst irrational market noise.