Nvidia (NVDA) Stock: H100 GPU Rental Prices Surge 40% as Demand Hits New Highs

TLDR

• H100 GPU rental prices have surged nearly 40% since October, rising from $1.70 to $2.35 per hour, as GPU capacity is effectively sold out across the market.
• Nvidia’s newer Blackwell GPUs are also in short supply, with lead times stretching into mid-2026, despite expectations that newer chips would ease pressure on older models.
• The four largest cloud customers — Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon — are expected to spend a combined ~$700 billion on AI infrastructure in 2026, with Nvidia holding 85-90% of the GPU market.
• China’s approval of H100 chip sales, with licenses issued to several customers, represents a potential $25 billion annual revenue opportunity not currently included in any guidance.
• NVDA trades at 15.7x forward earnings — below its 3-year average of 19.4x — while Wall Street carries an average price target of $273.57, implying roughly 55% upside.

Nvidia’s H100 GPUs are not getting cheaper — they’re getting more expensive, and fast. Rental prices have climbed nearly 40% since October, from $1.70 to around $2.35 per hour, according to data from SemiAnalysis based on surveys of more than 100 industry participants.

NVIDIA Corporation, NVDA

GPU capacity is effectively sold out. Companies that secured access earlier are holding on tight, even as prices climb. Some buyers are resorting to higher-priced spot instances on platforms like AWS to find availability.

The tight market isn’t limited to older chips. Nvidia’s newer Blackwell GPUs are facing the same pressure, with lead times now stretching into mid-2026. That defies earlier expectations that more efficient, next-gen chips would push down demand — and prices — for models like the H100.

Demand is being driven by a wide range of AI applications, from media-generation tools at companies like ByteDance and Google to growing use of models including Anthropic’s Claude.

Hyperscaler Spending Creates a Revenue Floor

Behind the supply crunch is a wave of committed capital. Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, and Amazon are expected to collectively spend around $700 billion on AI infrastructure in 2026 alone. These aren’t projections — they’re disclosed capital plans.

Microsoft has said roughly two-thirds of its capital spending goes toward GPUs and CPUs. With Nvidia controlling 85-90% of the GPU market, most of that spending lands at Nvidia’s door. Even if chips account for just 20% of total AI infrastructure costs, that implies over $140 billion in annual chip spending from just four customers.

Nvidia’s Q4 revenues came in at $68.13 billion, up 73% year-over-year, and its Q1 guidance of $78 billion beat analyst consensus by more than $5 billion. Revenue growth for fiscal 2027 is currently expected at 71%.

Despite that, NVDA is down about 6.5% year-to-date, hurt by broader macro concerns tied to energy inflation and risk-off sentiment. The stock currently trades at 15.7x forward earnings — below both its 3-year historical average of 19.4x and AMD’s forward multiple of 18.9x, despite Nvidia holding far greater market share, margins, and growth.

China Approval and Upcoming Vera Rubin Platform Add to the Picture

A potentially material catalyst that isn’t yet in the numbers: China has approved Nvidia to sell H100 chips, with licenses issued to multiple customers. Wells Fargo estimates this could be worth $25 billion or more in annual revenue. That figure wasn’t included in Nvidia’s most recent guidance.

On the product side, the upcoming Vera Rubin platform delivers ten times more performance per watt than Blackwell and roughly 50 times more tokens per watt compared to the prior Hopper generation. Shipments are expected to begin in the second half of 2026.

Nvidia also closed a $2 billion equity investment in Marvell Technology (MRVL) on March 31, opening its NVLink ecosystem to Marvell’s custom AI chips — used by Amazon, Alphabet, and Microsoft. NVDA rose more than 5% on that announcement day. Marvell climbed 13%.

Wall Street holds a Strong Buy consensus on NVDA, with 41 Buy ratings, one Hold, and one Sell over the past three months. The average price target sits at $273.57.

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