XRP Price: Real Money Is Buying While Leveraged Traders Bet Against It – What’s Next?

TLDR

• Spot buyers on Binance have accumulated $451 million in XRP, while bearish futures positions sit at -$1.5 billion
• XRP is trading around $1.31, down six consecutive monthly candles since September 2025
• XRP Ledger hit a record 4.49 million daily transactions on April 2, and active addresses topped 200,000
• XRP is compressing into the apex of a descending wedge pattern, with a key breakout level at $1.47
• U.S. spot XRP ETF inflows turned negative in March 2026 for the first time since launch

XRP is caught between two opposing forces right now. Real money is buying the dip, while leveraged traders are betting on further losses.

On Binance, spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has climbed to $451 million on the buy side. That means real capital is being exchanged for real XRP. At the same time, Binance Perpetual CVD sits at around -$1.5 billion. Across all centralized exchanges, the figure is near -$1 billion. Leveraged traders are heavily short.

This kind of setup is known as a pre-squeeze structure. When spot buyers absorb selling pressure from derivatives traders, the supply available to push prices lower shrinks. If it shrinks enough, short positions become a liability rather than an advantage.

XRP is trading at $1.31, down 0.33% on the day as of April 3. The price has declined for six straight months, with no green monthly close since September 2025.

Descending Wedge Approaches Its Apex

On the daily chart, XRP is pressing into the apex of a descending wedge. The upper resistance line and a slightly rising lower support line are converging. The daily MACD histogram sits at -0.0222, which is still bearish, but it has been contracting — a sign that selling pressure is gradually easing.

On the 4H chart, the signal line has crossed marginally into positive territory for the first time since February. A full bullish MACD crossover has not confirmed yet, but the momentum is shifting.

Analyst Ali Martinez noted on X that XRP “could offer a short-term buying opportunity” within its multi-year ascending triangle at current levels. He also flagged a potential 30% decline before a long-term recovery becomes likely.

A daily close above $1.47 would confirm a breakout, targeting $1.50 then $1.60. A break below $1.27 exposes XRP to $1.14. Around 19.6 million XRP is clustered between $1.27 and $1.28, making it the key demand zone to defend.

Network Activity Hits Records

On-chain data tells a different story from the price. The XRP Ledger recorded 4.49 million successful transactions on April 2 — a two-year high. Daily active addresses have climbed back above 200,000. Total non-empty wallets recently crossed 7.7 million for the first time in the ledger’s 13-year history.

Billions of dollars in XRP have also left exchanges recently, including $11.4 billion leaving Binance alone.

U.S. spot XRP ETF inflows turned negative in March 2026 for the first time since products launched in November 2025. XRP open interest across all exchanges sits near $2.45 billion, down approximately 73% from its September 2025 peak.

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