IRGC closes Strait of Hormuz, demands US lift port blockade

The IRGC announced the Strait of Hormuz closure, demanding the US end its blockade of Iranian ports. Trump’s Hormuz blockade lift by May 31 is at 78% YES, down from 90% yesterday.

The April 19 market dropped to 8% YES, down from 28% in a day. Traders clearly doubt a quick resolution. The May 31 odds held higher, which suggests traders expect a resolution eventually but not soon. UK warship transit by April 30 sits at 8.5% YES, down from 12% yesterday, as the closure raises the risk profile for naval transits.

USDC volume across related markets is $29,602. The largest single move was a 6-point drop in the April 19 market at 6:05 PM. It costs $3,849 to move that market 5 points, which means there’s some depth but also vulnerability to large orders. The May 31 market is thicker but still saw a 5-point drop at midday as traders reacted to the IRGC statement.

The IRGC’s ultimatum makes an imminent US policy reversal less likely. The source is Tier 3, so caution is warranted, but the market reaction is real. Buying YES at 8¢ on UK warships promises a 12.5x return if resolved, a bet on an unlikely but possible diplomatic breakthrough.

Watch for US Navy or UK Ministry of Defence statements. Any shift in operational language or a diplomatic breakthrough could move these markets fast.

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