'No fantasy': CNN data guru sounds the alarm for the Texas GOP

Texas is absolutely in play,” CNN analyst Harry Enten says. He wants to put to rest the idea that Democrats can’t win Texas.

“Republican senators are running scared,” following President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Texas MAGA Attorney General Ken Paxton over mainstream Republican U.S. Senator John Cornyn. It appears Paxton is now favored to win the nomination for Cornyn’s seat.

A Paxton primary win, Enten says, could land Texas Democratic state Representative James Talarico in the U.S. Senate seat.

“James Talarico could very well win in Texas,” Enten says, noting that the scenario is now very different from 2018, when Democrat Beto O’Rourke tried to unseat Republican Senator Ted Cruz.

Enten also notes that “the numbers, at this point, absolutely support the conclusion that James Talarico can win.”

Cruz was up by seven points in the polls in May of 2018. Paxton now is down by seven points.

“Ted Cruz was actually decently popular, but Ken Paxton is anything but — in poll after poll after poll, he is underwater.”

Cruz “was clearly ahead. But look at the polling average now when you match up Ken Paxton versus James Talarico — it’s actually Talarico that’s ahead by four points.”

Enten notes that “Talarico is polling better than any Democrat in at least 24 years. You have to go all the way back to 2002 to find a Democrat, even polling anywhere close to where Talarico is polling right now.”

Texas Democrats have “dreamt” about turning the Lone Star State blue, and this time, “the numbers actually support the idea that they may actually be able to do it.”

The other part of the equation, Enten notes, is that in 2018 Trump was up by four points in Texas polling. Now, he is down by three.

“Trump is considerably less popular in Texas, which, of course, matches what we’re seeing nationally, which is that Donald Trump is less popular now than he was at this point in term one,” Enten said. “You put it all together, you look at the general election pulse. You look at the popularity of the potential Republican candidates.”

“Talarico winning in Texas is no fantasy,” Enten added on social media. “The GOP is right to be scared.”

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