Kalshi Launches Lobbying Group as Congress Opens Insider Trading Probe Into Prediction Markets

TLDR

• Kalshi has launched a new lobbying group called Americans for Fair Markets (AFM) to shape federal policy on prediction markets.
• Former Trump White House aide Taylor Budowich has been named as a strategic advisor to the group.
• The group launched on the same day the House Oversight Committee announced probes into insider trading on both Kalshi and rival Polymarket.
• AFM positions itself against sportsbooks and casinos, which it says are spreading false information about prediction markets.
• The gaming industry fired back, calling prediction markets “backdoor sports-betting operations.”

Kalshi, the federally regulated prediction market platform, has launched a lobbying organization called Americans for Fair Markets. The group aims to influence how lawmakers and regulators view prediction markets in the United States.

The group tapped Taylor Budowich, a former senior White House staffer under President Donald Trump, as its strategic advisor. Budowich previously handled communications for the White House and a pro-Trump super PAC before resigning in September.

AFM’s launch was backed by Kalshi, though the group says it has other members. A spokesperson described the group as “well capitalized” but declined to reveal how much funding it has received.

The group’s stated goal is to counter what Kalshi calls “false narratives” about prediction markets being spread by the gambling industry. AFM says sportsbooks and casinos are trying to protect their business interests by painting prediction markets in a bad light.

House Launches Probe on the Same Day

The launch of AFM came on the same day that House Oversight Committee Chair James Comer announced investigations into insider trading at both Kalshi and Polymarket. Comer pointed to suspicious bets made ahead of military actions related to Venezuela and Iran, which have already led to arrests in the US and Israel.

Kalshi has said it supports oversight by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The CFTC and state regulators have been clashing over who has jurisdiction, with states arguing that prediction markets violate local gambling laws.

Polymarket has a regulated US platform but processes most of its bets internationally. Kalshi, by contrast, operates primarily as a federally regulated exchange.

Gaming Industry Pushes Back

The American Gaming Association has taken a hard stance against prediction markets. Bill Miller, its president and CEO, testified before Congress earlier this week, saying these platforms are “deceptively calling sports betting financial contracts and investing.”

AFM joins a broader lobbying push that includes the Coalition for Prediction Markets, launched in December 2025, which is backed by Coinbase, Crypto.com, and Robinhood.

The group says it will support platforms with consumer protections like know-your-customer rules, insider trading bans, and restrictions on markets tied to violence or terrorism.

Trump has sent mixed signals on prediction markets. He said last month he was “not happy” with the platforms, but later softened his position, saying the US would “get left out in the cold” if it banned them. His son, Donald Trump Jr., has invested in Polymarket and sits on its advisory board, and is also an advisor to Kalshi.

Kalshi’s valuation recently doubled to $22 billion following a $1 billion funding round.

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