NordFX Forecast: Post Holiday Repricing — USD, Gold, Oil and Bitcoin After the NFP Shock

The July 4 fireworks were still smoking when the jobs data lit a bigger one. June Nonfarm Payrolls printed just 57K versus 115K expected, with April and May slashed by a combined 74K. Unemployment “fell” to 4.2%, but only because discouraged workers left the labor force, participation dropped to 61.5%, the weakest since 2021. Wages held at 3.5% y/y. Underneath the headline: a labor market losing steam.

💵 USD — Rate hike odds for September tumbled toward 50% from near 67% pre print, and the dollar just logged its worst week since April. All eyes now on CPI (July 14) and the July 29 FOMC. Expect sharp, headline driven swings.

🥇 Gold — XAU/USD snapped back above $4,150 after four weekly losses in a row, riding the weaker dollar and fading hike bets. Still far from January’s record near $5,600. $4,000 remains the line in the sand; a soft dollar keeps bulls in control for now.

🛢️ Oil — Brent near $72, WTI near $69, the calmest levels since before the US-Iran conflict began. Hormuz shipping is normalizing, Saudi and UAE exports are back close to pre war flows, and OPEC+ just added more barrels. But diplomacy is fragile, one bad headline could reignite the risk premium fast.

₿ Bitcoin — BTC sits in the low $60Ks, nowhere near 2025’s $122K peak, as fragile risk appetite and Fed uncertainty keep buyers cautious. Views are split between a bounce toward $65–70K and another leg down if data disappoints again.

🔎 Bottom line: a cooling US economy, a shaky dollar, easing but unresolved geopolitical tension, markets are one headline away from their next big move.

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Not financial advice. Markets are volatile, trade responsibly.

NordFX Forecast: Post Holiday Repricing — USD, Gold, Oil and Bitcoin After the NFP Shock 📊 was originally published in Coinmonks on Medium, where people are continuing the conversation by highlighting and responding to this story.