Bitcoin Climbs 10%, but Wintermute Warns the Rally May Not Last

Bitcoin (BTC) rose nearly 10% over the past week to trade around US$64,023 (AU$92,193), touching a two-week high above US$64,500 (AU$92,880), and market maker Wintermute told clients the rebound is a “textbook relief rally.”

Wintermute pointed to three drivers behind the move: easing macroeconomic conditions, a more dovish tone from the Federal Reserve, and improving headlines around Ethereum and institutional adoption. “This looks like a textbook relief rally, and it makes sense given the input,” the firm said in a market update. 

Ethereum (ETH) rose 13.54% during the same bounce to about US$1,791 (AU$2,579), outpacing Bitcoin’s gain, with the move tied to institutional tokenisation headlines.

One catalyst was US payroll data that came in at 57,000 jobs against expectations of about 110,000. The miss pushed traders to reprice the odds of a further Federal Reserve rate hike to around 25%, and Bitcoin gained ground alongside other risk assets. Wintermute’s data showed whales accumulating more than 270,000 BTC near Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average during the period.

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The Flows Behind the Move

Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have started buying again. The funds snapped a 10-day outflow streak with US$222 million (AU$319.68 million) in inflows on July 2, followed by US$265 million (AU$381.6 million) on Monday. Before that, the funds had recorded outflows for 10 straight sessions, and their year-to-date net outflows still total US$5.4 billion (AU$7.78 billion). BlackRock’s IBIT kept seeing redemptions even as the headline flows turned positive.

In its market update, Wintermute said it wants to see inflows sustained across consecutive sessions before it reads the bounce as a genuine reversal. “Until that broader capital flow picture actually turns, this reads as relief rather than something structural,” the firm said.

Bitcoin sits about 50% below its October record of US$126,080 (AU$181,555). The price has recovered to a two-week high after a months-long slide from that peak. Wintermute’s stated position is that the rally rests on easing macro conditions and a short run of ETF inflows, and that the firm needs a longer stretch of buying before treating the move as a lasting shift.

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