Climate change, El Niño worsen extreme weather, economic losses, experts warn

Climate experts warned that a strong El Niño developing alongside human-caused global warming is expected to intensify heat waves, droughts, storms, food insecurity, and economic losses worldwide, with vulnerable communities facing some of the most severe impacts.

During an online briefing titled “Fuel on Fire: Reporting El Niño and the True Costs of Climate Change” organized by environmental group 350.org on Wednesday, climate scientists and policy experts said the combination of climate change and El Niño is amplifying extreme weather events and increasing risks to public health, agriculture, livelihoods, and economies across regions already struggling with rising temperatures and climate-related disasters.

French National Center for Scientific Research (CNRS) climate physicist and research director, and Climameter coordinator Davide Faranda said El Niño is a natural climate pattern characterized by the warming of tropical Pacific waters, but its effects are being amplified by rising global temperatures caused by greenhouse gas emissions.

“We already have 1.4 degrees Celsius of global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions. On top of this, we will add up to 0.25 degrees Celsius at the global scale from El Niño,” Mr. Faranda said.

He said attribution studies conducted by Climameter and other scientific groups show that climate change is intensifying extreme weather events, including heat waves, wildfires, tropical cyclones, storms, and heavy rainfall.

“The question for attribution science is no longer whether weather extreme events are enhanced or intensified by climate change, but how much,” Mr. Faranda said.

Recent Climameter research found that a June heat wave in Western Europe was up to 2.5 degrees Celsius warmer because of climate change, while similar studies are underway for recent North American heat waves.

Mr. Faranda said El Niño is expected to raise global temperatures further and increase the impacts of extreme weather events already being strengthened by climate change.

In the Caribbean, the effects of El Niño are already being felt through drought, water shortages, extreme heat, and disease outbreaks, 350.org Caribbean geographer and water resources specialist Amira Quiñones said during the briefing.

“The Caribbean is clearly on the front lines of the climate crisis,” Ms. Quiñones said.
She said 82% of Puerto Rico is already experiencing drought conditions, prompting water rationing in some communities. During a previous El Niño-linked drought in 2015, many households received water only twice a week.

“Water rationing is not just an inconvenience, it is a health crisis,” Ms. Quiñones said.

She added that temperatures in parts of Puerto Rico have recently reached a heat index of up to 43 degrees Celsius, while countries across the Greater Antilles have been experiencing daily temperatures above 38 degrees Celsius.

Ms. Quiñones also warned that drought and warmer temperatures could worsen outbreaks of dengue, Zika, and chikungunya, while unusually warm seas are contributing to larger sargassum blooms that affect tourism, fisheries, and coastal livelihoods.

“The Caribbean contributes only a small share of global emissions, yet we are facing some of the worst impacts,” she said.

Shel Winkley, senior engagement specialist and chief meteorologist at Climate Central, said rising ocean temperatures are increasing the likelihood and severity of extreme weather worldwide.

“Climate change really is the big thing here,” Mr. Winkley said. “The baseline temperature is kind of like a plate. Climate change is the cake and El Niño is essentially the frosting on top.”

According to Climate Central’s Climate Shift Index, many ocean basins are experiencing unusually warm temperatures made significantly more likely by human-caused climate change.

Mr. Winkley said sea surface temperatures in parts of the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic Ocean have become between 100 and 500 times more likely because of climate change, increasing the potential for stronger tropical cyclones.

He also highlighted the growing health risks posed by extreme heat and humidity, noting that climate change has more than doubled the number of humid heat days globally since the 1970s.

“Nighttime temperatures during the summer months are warming almost twice as fast as daytime temperatures,” Mr. Winkley said, adding that warmer nights reduce the body’s ability to recover from daytime heat stress.

According to Gareth Redmond-King, head of international programmes at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), the economic consequences of climate change are also becoming increasingly apparent,
Mr. Redmond-King cited projections from the UK Institute and Faculty of Actuaries indicating that current climate trajectories could cut global gross domestic product in half later this century.

He also noted that African countries are already losing between 2% and 5% of their GDP annually due to climate impacts while spending up to 9% of their national budgets responding to climate-related disasters.

“Climate change is absolutely at the heart of the cost-of-living crisis,” Mr. Redmond-King said.

He pointed to rising food prices driven by extreme heat, droughts, floods, and crop diseases affecting major agricultural regions around the world. Climate change added an estimated £360 (about ₱27,700) to the average UK household food bill in 2022 and 2023, he said.

Mr. Redmond-King added that climate-related heat stress has cost agricultural workers billions of working hours and is increasing risks to global food security through lower crop yields, migration, and supply chain disruptions.

“Climate disasters kill people, destroy crops, and damage infrastructure in the short term. In the medium term, they’re building bigger risks into our global food system,” he said.

The speakers said the worsening impacts of climate change underscore the need for stronger mitigation and adaptation measures, warning that communities that contribute the least to global emissions are often among those facing the greatest climate-related risks.

“We know we can do nothing about El Niño, but we know we have only one scientific solution to halting climate change, which is to cut our emissions to net zero,” Mr. Redmond-King said. — Kaizzer Angela Marie V. Manuba