Hims & Hers (HIMS) Stock Surges 45% — But Is the Rally Built to Last?

TLDR

• BofA raised its HIMS price target to $37 (from $36) but kept a Neutral rating, citing overvaluation concerns
• Oral Wegovy customer growth went flat month-over-month in June, based on credit card data
• HIMS climbed over 45% in the past month, driven by its acquisition of Eucalyptus and global expansion
• Short interest sits above 28% of the float, reflecting persistent market skepticism
• Wall Street consensus is Moderate Buy, but the average price target of $30.14 implies ~16% downside

Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) is trading at $36.07, up more than 45% over the past month, yet BofA Securities just raised its price target to $37 from $36 while keeping a Neutral rating — a cautious move that tells you a lot about where analysts stand.

Hims & Hers Health, Inc., HIMS

BofA analyst Allen Lutz flagged signs that retention among new oral Wegovy members could be softer than expected. The concern is a familiar one in subscription businesses: customers signed up at $39 in month one, but when that fee jumps to $149 in month two, a meaningful chunk of them are walking away.

Credit and debit card data from BSM showed that HIMS customers were essentially flat month-over-month in June. That’s not the kind of momentum you want to see when a big second-half EBITDA ramp is already baked into expectations.

Competitor Ro, which launched oral Wegovy two to three months ahead of HIMS, is already seeing declining new customers and a plateauing base. BofA believes HIMS is likely to follow a similar path.

Despite the cautious tone, BofA did nudge its valuation multiple up slightly — to 34.5x CY26 EV/EBITDA from 33.5x — pointing to stronger-than-expected early subscriber growth and slightly higher peer multiples. The company currently trades at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 104.65x based on the last twelve months of EBITDA.

Global Push and New Products

The bull case for HIMS centers on its rapid expansion beyond U.S. GLP-1 products. In early June, the company finalized its acquisition of Eucalyptus, the parent of weight loss platform Juniper, giving it immediate footholds in Germany, Japan, Australia, the UK, and Canada.

HIMS also rolled out its “Labs AI” clinical agent and launched Testosterone Rx+, a daily pill combining enclomiphene and tadalafil. These moves are designed to diversify revenue away from its heavy reliance on GLP-1 injectables.

There’s also a potential demand tailwind: with roughly 10% of major employers expected to drop obesity drug coverage from their 2027 benefit plans due to high costs, more cash-paying patients may turn to direct-to-consumer platforms like HIMS.

Health officials also recently signaled they may lift restrictions on 12 therapeutic peptides — a potential regulatory green light that management could use to defend its long-term 2030 revenue target of $6.5 billion.

Earnings Will Be the Real Test

Short interest remains above 28% of the float. That skepticism is rooted in a rough start to the year — in February, the FDA and DOJ crackdown forced HIMS to pull its $49-per-month oral semaglutide pill just 48 hours after launch. A patent lawsuit from Novo Nordisk followed, before a strategic partnership was reached in March.

The upcoming Q2 earnings report will be closely watched for subscriber retention data and margin trends as the company shifts users from compounded to branded products.

Wall Street’s current consensus is Moderate Buy — four Buy ratings and nine Holds, with no Sells. The average price target of $30.14 implies about 16% downside from current levels.

Other analysts are more constructive: Canaccord has a $40 target with a Buy rating, and Barclays sits at $39, citing GLP-1 growth and increased web traffic following the Novo Nordisk partnership.

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