Euro Holds at 2% as ECB Likely to Keep Rates Steady While Growth Upgrades Fuel Next-Year Hike Bets

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Analysts view Lagarde’s messaging as signaling a cautious stance, with the ECB rate poised to stay at 2% as markets set their sights on the forthcoming eurozone growth forecasts at the policy meeting.

Lagarde’s remarks also imply a potential lift in the euro area forecasts, a move that, together with persistent inflation, has lifted bets on a possible ECB rate hike next year.

Yet policy direction remains debated, and the forward pricing shift has occurred only in recent weeks, meaning traders will scrutinize every clue on the timing of moves. Any adjustment is expected to be subtle and well signposted through forward guidance.

George Mollard, Eurozone economist at RBC Capital Markets, warned against counting on a 2026 rate rise, noting that the cyclical tailwind may be temporary and that the ECB emphasizes avoiding overreaction to temporary deviations.