Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Near Sell-Side Saturation, Says K33

• Long-term Bitcoin holders’ selling pressure is nearing saturation, according to K33 Research.
• The two-year dormant supply could level off and start climbing again as distribution tapers.

Selling pressure from long-term Bitcoin holders is approaching saturation, according to K33 Research. After two years of the old supply returning to the market, the rate of redistribution from old holders has begun to slow. Many previously dormant coins have been released, limiting the scope for further selling for this group.

K33 notes that since 2024, approximately 1.6 million coins more than two years old have returned to the market. This is a significant amount, and this movement is not simply a technical change of address. Data indicates that this flow is directly related to the realization of profits by early holders who chose to sell when market liquidity improved. However, after this long period, the rate of supply leaving the hands of old holders has begun to slow.

Bitcoin Selling Pressure Nears Its Final Stretch

Historically, the period from 2024 to 2025 was one of the largest periods of the return of old Bitcoin supply to the market, second only to the 2017 cycle. Approximately one-fifth of the total supply has already undergone redistribution.

However, this figure is precisely what leads K33 to assess that selling pressure from this group is approaching its limit. In other words, most of the coins that could have been sold have already changed hands.

According to K33, the share of coins idle for more than two years is leveling off after several cycles of decline. The firm expects this downtrend to halt and potentially turn upward in 2026, signaling a shift from a distribution-heavy environment to one where supply becomes more balanced.

Still, a drop in selling pressure doesn’t automatically translate into a fast market reaction. Demand remains a crucial role. Without consistent capital flows, the effects of a weakening distribution can be felt to a limited extent. Nevertheless, reduced supply from long-term holders usually gives the market room to breathe, especially when demand persists.

Furthermore, ownership shift patterns are also changing. K33 believes that coins leaving the hands of long-term holders tend to go to those with longer-term horizons. This process is slow and subtle, but its impact is felt on the market structure. Bitcoin selling pressure, which used to occur regularly, is now becoming less frequent.

On December 15, we reported that demand for crypto ETFs for Bitcoin and Ethereum is now matching, or even exceeding, the newly issued supply. The ETF’s accumulation indicates a shift in coins from weaker to stronger holders.

A few days earlier, on December 12, we highlighted Bank of America’s plans to create a Bitcoin-collateralized credit product, allowing holders to access liquidity without having to sell.

A week ago, we also reported on PNC Bank becoming the first major US bank to offer integrated Bitcoin spot trading services for private banking clients through a partnership with Coinbase.

As of press time, BTC is changing hands at about $86,422, down 0.30% over the last 24 hours and 6.01% over the last 7 days.