Unitree IPO Valuation: Is the Robotics Company Worth $6 Billion?

 

Unitree Robotics has set the base valuation for its STAR Market IPO at roughly 42 billion yuan, about $6.2 billion, with price inquiries on August 5, subscriptions on August 10 and an expected listing around August 19. The debate over that number has turned white hot. Bulls point to 2025 revenue of 1.708 billion yuan, up 335%, a 60.27% gross margin and adjusted net profit of 600 million yuan, making Unitree essentially the only humanoid robotics company profitable every year since 2020, while US comparable Figure AI has reportedly carried a valuation as high as $39 billion without scale revenue, which makes $6.2 billion look like a bargain. Bears counter with a different data set: first-half 2026 revenue growth has collapsed to roughly 40% from 332% a year earlier, adjusted profit is guided down 6% to 22%, average humanoid prices have been cut from 590,000 to 166,400 yuan, and the United States announced import curbs two days before the launch, closing one of Unitree's largest overseas markets. Both data sets are true. Whether $6 billion is cheap or expensive depends on which growth curve you believe. This article lays the valuation math on the table, and explains the instruments traders can already use to take a position before the stock even lists.

 

 

 

Unitree is issuing 40.4464 million new shares (10% of post-IPO capital) to raise about 4.2 billion yuan, implying a base valuation near 42 billion yuan (about $6.2 billion), which works out to roughly 70 times 2025 adjusted earnings and about 24.6 times 2025 revenue.

 

The bull case rests on scarcity and profitability: 5,500+ humanoids shipped in 2025 for a world-leading 32.4% share, a 60.27% gross margin, consecutive profitable years since 2020, against US peer Figure AI reportedly marked as high as $39 billion with almost no scale revenue.

 

The bear case rests on deceleration and geopolitics: first-half 2026 revenue growth of roughly 35.6% to 45.4% versus 332% a year earlier, adjusted profit guided down 6% to 22%, average humanoid prices down more than 70% in a year, and US import curbs closing a key export market.

 

Secondary-market expectations already run far above the offer, with CXMT's 466% first-day surge on July 27 igniting subscription fever and some market chatter anchoring Unitree's post-listing value above 100 billion yuan, though such figures are sentiment rather than official guidance.

 

For global investors shut out of A-share subscriptions, MEXC offers USDT-settled UNITREE stock futures that can be traded before the listing, around the clock, long or short, with no allocation limits, and the platform raised maximum leverage on the contract from 10x to 25x on August 4.

 

 

Start with the arithmetic of the offering. Per Caixin Global, Unitree formally launched its IPO on July 30, targeting 4.2 billion yuan at an implied valuation of 42 billion yuan. Per Gasgoo, the company is issuing 40.4464 million shares, 10% of post-offering capital, all new shares, with CITIC Securities as sponsor and lead underwriter, price inquiries on August 5 and subscriptions on August 10.

 

Divide the prospectus numbers into that valuation and the multiples fall out cleanly. Per Tech Market Briefs' prospectus review, Unitree posted 2025 revenue of 1.708 billion yuan and adjusted net profit of 600.1 million yuan. At 42 billion yuan, that is roughly 70 times trailing adjusted earnings and about 24.6 times trailing revenue. Seventy times earnings for a company whose profit multiplied severalfold last year is not outlandish within a growth-stock framework. The entire question is whether that growth persists.

 

 

 

The first pillar of the bull case is scarcity. Unitree shipped more than 5,500 humanoids in 2025 for a world-leading 32.4% unit share, holds over 60% of the quadruped market, and has been profitable every year since 2020 with a 60.27% gross margin. In an industry where nearly every player is burning cash, that combination exists nowhere else.

 

The second pillar is the absurdity of the comparable. Per TechTimes' comparison, US humanoid developer Figure AI has reportedly carried a valuation as high as $39 billion with almost no scale revenue. If that private mark means anything, then either the world's top-shipping, profitable humanoid maker at $6.2 billion is severely underpriced, or Figure AI is severely overpriced. One of the two must be true.

 

The third pillar is policy and sentiment. Embodied intelligence features in China's Government Work Report and its 15th Five-Year Plan proposal, with a directive for 10,000 humanoid robots deployed in real settings by the end of 2026. And CXMT's 466% first-day surge on July 27, briefly reaching a market value near $490 billion, has blown open the premium imagination for hard-tech debuts. Some secondary-market chatter now anchors Unitree's post-listing value above 100 billion yuan, though that reflects sentiment rather than any official guidance.

 

 

 

The bear case has equally hard numbers. Per BigGo Finance's analysis, Unitree guides first-half 2026 revenue to 1.052 to 1.128 billion yuan, growth of roughly 35.6% to 45.4% versus 332% in the same period last year. Adjusted net profit is expected to fall about 6% to 22%, and audited first-quarter net profit dropped 47.69%. The culprits are surging R&D and sales costs, with Q1 R&D spending up 38.33 million yuan year over year alongside major brand campaigns including the CCTV Spring Festival Gala.

 

The price curve is more alarming still. Average humanoid selling prices have fallen from 590,000 to 166,400 yuan, a drop of more than 70% in a year, a plainly visible volume-over-price strategy. Seventy times earnings prices a hyper-growth company. A company growing 40% with declining profit and collapsing average prices struggles to support that multiple under any conventional framework. The prospectus itself warns growth may decelerate further as the revenue base expands and competition intensifies.

 

 

Two days before the launch, the United States announced import curbs covering foreign-made humanoid and quadruped robots, effectively closing one of Unitree's largest addressable export markets. The G1 humanoid (about $13,500) and Go2 robot dog (from about $1,600) had meaningful overseas sales. Domestic policy orders can fill the gap near term, but a hardware company severed from a major export market warrants a geopolitical discount, and the 100 billion yuan chatter barely reflects one.

 

 

Put both ledgers together and the answer comes in layers.

 

Relative to the offer price, 42 billion yuan looks conservative. Seventy times earnings for the world's top-shipping, profitable humanoid leader, with 85% of proceeds going to R&D, means institutions in the August 5 book-building will likely pay up, which is why a broken debut is essentially not the concern here.

 

Relative to the 100 billion yuan secondary-market expectations, risk climbs steeply. A CXMT-style debut that pushes the market value above 100 billion yuan implies more than 160 times earnings and over 58 times revenue. At that point the market is no longer pricing a financial statement but an unproven belief, the iPhone moment for humanoids, and the reality of 40% growth and repeatedly halved prices will stress-test that belief every earnings season.

 

In one sentence: $6 billion buys a real company, 100 billion yuan buys an era that has not yet arrived. The vast space between the two is exactly where this stock's early volatility will live.

 

 

The most interesting feature of this valuation debate is that you do not need to wait until August 19 to express a view. For global investors shut out of A-share subscriptions, MEXC offers a USDT-settled UNITREE stock futures contract, and in this specific setup the instrument carries several properties traditional channels cannot match.

 

First, early positioning. A-share subscriptions face the triple gate of account access, eligibility thresholds and lottery odds, while the UNITREE contract already trades before the official debut, making its price a live market vote on the listing valuation with no allotment to wait for. Second, no allocation limits. IPO subscription is fundamentally a lottery with typically tiny win rates, whereas futures exposure is bounded only by your own margin and risk controls. Third, round-the-clock access. A-shares trade four hours a day, while the contract runs 24/7, so positions can be adjusted the moment news breaks, whether US import curbs after hours or industry headlines over a weekend. Fourth, two-way trading. If you buy the bear argument that triple-digit-billion expectations have overdrawn the faith, you can short it directly, something nearly impossible on a freshly listed A-share. Fifth, capital efficiency. Per MEXC's official announcement on August 4, maximum leverage on UNITREEUSDT has been raised from 10x to 25x, allowing a smaller principal to amplify exposure to this valuation contest.

 

The other side of the coin deserves equal clarity. Leverage amplifies losses as much as gains. At 25x, an adverse move of roughly 4% can trigger liquidation, and new listings routinely swing far more than 4% in a session. Pre-listing contract prices reflect expectations and can diverge materially from the final offer price and the actual debut. Understand the contract mechanics, funding rates and liquidation rules, and size positions strictly before participating.

 

 

 

 

First, the final offer price published on August 6. Book-building is professional capital voting with real money on the 42 billion yuan base, and the premium calibrates market optimism. Second, the overseas revenue share in the first post-listing quarterly report, the first hard evidence of the import curbs' actual bite. Third, the trajectory of average humanoid prices, since stabilizing prices are the precondition for the 60% gross margin and the business model itself. Continued declines would force a full downward revision of the valuation framework.

 

 

Valuation risk leads. If CXMT-fueled subscription fever converts into a debut detached from fundamentals, the subsequent retracement room is just as large, and a 10% free float amplifies swings in both directions. Fundamental risk follows, since a second half that extends the deceleration and profit decline will put the 70 times offer multiple on trial. Geopolitical risk operates on a lag, quantifiable only through quarterly disclosures. Futures traders carry two additional layers: leverage risk, and expectation gap risk, since pre-listing contract pricing can diverge directionally from the actual debut.

 

 

What genuinely matters about this valuation debate is that it is a public experiment in pricing scarcity premiums. Unitree stacks three scarcities at once: world-leading shipments, the industry's only sustained profitability, and the A-share market's first pure-play humanoid listing. Market history shows repeatedly that triple scarcity plus a small free float almost guarantees that near-term price detaches from any valuation model, and CXMT's 466% is merely the latest footnote. August's action is therefore likely a question of float, not valuation. The real verdict arrives in the second phase, after the float expands and the euphoria drains.

 

Two misreadings look likely. The first is reverse-engineering what Unitree is "at least worth" from Figure AI's $39 billion. Private marks lack public audits and liquidity tests, and using a possibly distorted anchor as a pricing benchmark systematically inflates the whole sector. The rigorous direction runs the other way: use Unitree's public multiples, once listed, to test whether the private marks of the Figure AIs hold up. The second is reading 70 times earnings against 40% growth and concluding "expensive" in a straight line. With 85% of proceeds directed to R&D, part of the current profit decline is deliberate front-loaded investment, and evaluating such companies requires separating decelerating growth from accelerated spending. The speed at which R&D converts into new products and orders after listing carries more information than any static multiple.

 

From a trading standpoint, three actionable signals matter most. The pre-listing futures market's pricing center relative to the 42 billion yuan base, which is global capital's unconstrained expectation with no allotment limits. The timing of peak turnover after the debut, since new listings historically reveal their trend direction only after the first churn wave subsides. And the quarter-over-quarter path of average prices and gross margin, the only hard gauge separating a price war from a product-mix upgrade. Until these clarify, position discipline should run far tighter than for ordinary names in either direction, and with leveraged instruments, volatility itself is the primary enemy.

 

For cross-asset investors, the broader lesson is structural. Unitree's listing completes the AI narrative's public pricing chain from chips through cloud to embodied endpoints, and the futures built around it let that pricing contest begin before the stock even trades. When a scarce traditional-market asset can be traded around the clock, in both directions, with leverage, on crypto-market infrastructure, the boundary between the two markets is dissolving. That shift may prove more worth remembering than the fate of any single stock.

 

 

 

The post-offering base valuation is roughly 42 billion yuan, about $6.2 billion. The company is issuing 40.4464 million new shares, 10% of post-IPO capital, to raise about 4.2 billion yuan. Against 2025 adjusted net profit of 600.1 million yuan, that implies roughly 70 times earnings, and against 2025 revenue of 1.708 billion yuan, about 24.6 times sales. The final offer price will be set on August 6 after institutional book-building, and while some secondary-market chatter expects a far higher post-listing value, such figures are sentiment rather than official guidance.

 

 

Triple scarcity. Unitree shipped more than 5,500 humanoids in 2025 for a world-leading 32.4% share and holds over 60% of the quadruped market. It is essentially the industry's only company profitable every year since 2020, with a 60.27% gross margin and 335% revenue growth in 2025. It will also be the first pure-play humanoid stock on the A-share market. Against Figure AI's reported $39 billion mark with almost no scale revenue, bulls argue $6.2 billion is conservative.

 

 

Deceleration and geopolitics. First-half 2026 revenue growth has fallen to roughly 35.6% to 45.4% from 332% a year earlier, adjusted profit is guided down 6% to 22%, and Q1 net profit dropped 47.69%. Average humanoid prices fell more than 70% in a year, from 590,000 to 166,400 yuan. Two days before the launch, the United States announced import curbs on foreign-made robots, closing a key export market, with the real impact quantifiable only in post-listing quarterly reports.

 

 

MEXC offers a USDT-settled UNITREE stock futures contract with several distinctive properties. It trades before the official listing, so no allotment wait. It carries no lottery-style allocation limits, with exposure bounded only by your margin. It runs 24/7, allowing immediate reaction to after-hours and weekend news. It supports both long and short positions. And per the platform's August 4 announcement, maximum leverage has been raised from 10x to 25x. Note that leverage amplifies losses as well as gains, and pre-listing pricing can diverge from the actual debut.

 

 

Preliminary price inquiries on August 5, the offer price set on August 6, online and offline subscriptions on August 10, payment due August 12 and final results published August 14. The official listing date has not been announced, with local industry expectations centering around August 19, pending confirmation from the Shanghai Stock Exchange and the company. The pricing step deserves the closest attention, since the premium over the 42 billion yuan base calibrates institutional appetite.

 

 

Three sets. The final offer price on August 6 relative to the 42 billion yuan base, institutions' real-money verdict. The overseas revenue share in the first post-listing quarterly report, the direct test of the US import curbs. And the quarterly path of average humanoid prices, since price stabilization underpins the 60% gross margin and the business model. Additionally, second-phase pricing after the float expands and euphoria fades will reflect the market's true judgment better than any first-day pop.

 

 

Three things above all. Position sizing first: at 25x leverage an adverse move of roughly 4% can trigger liquidation, while new listings routinely swing far more in a single session, so actual leverage should sit well below the cap. Expectation gaps second: pre-listing contract prices reflect market expectations and can diverge directionally from the final offer price and debut path. Mechanics third: understand funding rates, liquidation rules and mark-price mechanisms before participating. Leveraged trading is not suitable for all investors, and independent financial advice is worth seeking where needed.

 

 

This content is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, legal advice, tax advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. Prices of equities, new listings, futures and crypto assets can move sharply, with newly listed stocks and leveraged derivatives particularly volatile. Leverage amplifies both gains and losses and can result in the loss of the entire margin, and such products are not suitable for all investors. Maximum leverage and other product parameters may not be available in certain countries or regions, and the trading page should be treated as authoritative. Past performance, technical indicators and on-chain data cannot guarantee future results, and the valuation discussion, timeline expectations and scenarios presented here are built on public information, so actual outcomes may differ materially, with the official announcements of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, the China Securities Regulatory Commission and Unitree Robotics taking precedence. Readers should conduct their own research and reach independent conclusions based on their financial circumstances, investment objectives and risk tolerance, consulting licensed professionals where appropriate. The MEXC Crypto Pulse Team accepts no liability for any direct or indirect losses arising from the use of or reliance on this content.

 

 

James Mitchell specializes in technical analysis, market trends, and trading strategies for both Bitcoin and altcoins. Based in London, he has over 10 years of experience in financial markets. Before joining MEXC Learn, James worked as a senior analyst at a leading European investment firm, where he developed expertise in risk management and quantitative trading. His transition to cryptocurrency markets began in 2017, and he has since become recognized for his data-driven approach. He holds a Master's degree in Financial Economics from the London School of Economics. His analytical approach combines traditional technical analysis with on-chain metrics to provide readers with actionable insights.

 

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