Toncoin faces $103M token unlock – Will it derail TON’s price rally?

Toncoin [TON] has emerged as one of the strongest performers in the latest market rebound. At press time, the asset gained nearly 19% in the past 24 hours as investor sentiment improved alongside a series of network upgrades aimed at boosting blockchain efficiency.

The rally has coincided with rising on-chain activity, stronger liquidity flows, and renewed user participation across the Toncoin ecosystem. However, despite the improving fundamentals, the sustainability of the uptrend may still depend on how the market absorbs the project’s upcoming monthly token unlock.

Network upgrades strengthen TON fundamentals

TON‘s latest momentum follows improvements to the network’s core infrastructure, particularly transaction finality. According to data shared by Pavel Durov, the blockchain now ranks among the fastest Layer-1 networks in transaction finality, processing transactions in roughly 0.6 seconds.

The development forms part of the ecosystem’s broader “Make TON Great Again (MTONGA)” initiative, which focuses on improving network performance and user accessibility.

Earlier upgrades also reduced transaction fees by nearly six times to around 0.00039 TON, or roughly $0.0005, while the network continues working toward gas-free transactions.

TON’s ties with Telegram also remain central to its expansion strategy. The messaging platform is expected to deepen its involvement within the ecosystem, potentially becoming one of TON’s largest validators and a major driver of adoption.

On-chain activity records notable growth

Market activity across the TON ecosystem has accelerated since the upgrades went live. The surge is most evident in decentralized finance protocols and decentralized exchanges.

One of the clearest indicators of the renewed interest has been the sharp rise in Total Value Locked (TVL). Since the 4th of May, TON’s TVL has climbed by roughly $32 million to approximately $91 million. This reflects growing confidence among users and liquidity providers.

Trading activity across decentralized exchanges has also surged, with DEX volume climbing to nearly $42 million. Notably, such levels have not been recorded since late 2024.

The increase in liquidity and trading volume suggests the market has responded positively to the network’s recent improvements. Still, TON’s rally could face pressure from a major supply event scheduled later this month.

Token unlock remains key threat to rally

Despite the improving fundamentals, TON’s upcoming token unlock continues to represent one of the largest risks to its current momentum.

Token unlocks introduce previously restricted tokens into circulation, increasing available supply within the market. Projects commonly use these token releases to fund ecosystem development, community incentives, and operational activities.

TON is expected to unlock approximately $103 million worth of tokens on the 24th of May. A supply increase of that magnitude could place downward pressure on price if buying demand fails to keep pace with the additional circulation.

The risk becomes more significant considering that TON’s inflows and outflows had only recently ranged between $7 million and $15 million before the latest rally pushed activity higher.