NZD weakens after RBNZ signals cautious policy – BBH

The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) underperformed across G10 currencies after Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Anna Breman dampened market expectations for rate hikes in 2026, BBH FX analysts report.

Governor Breman pushes back on 2026 rate hike bets

“NZD underperforms across the board. RBNZ Governor Anna Breman pushed back against market expectations for rate hikes next year. Breman cautioned that the bank’s policy rate forecast ‘indicates a slight probability of another rate cut in the near term…However, if economic conditions evolve as expected the OCR is likely to remain at its current level of 2.25% for some time’.”

“The swaps curve price-in nearly 50bps of hikes over the next twelve months. Without positive data surprises, the RBNZ will struggle to deliver the hikes priced-in, and NZD upside will be limited. Next major resistance for NZD/USD is offered at the 200-day moving average (0.5861).”