Week 3, July 2026 Reporting Period: July 15 – July 21, 2026 Data Cutoff: July 21, 2026 Market Overview The crypto market demonstrated resilience this week amidst complex multi-directional pressures.Week 3, July 2026 Reporting Period: July 15 – July 21, 2026 Data Cutoff: July 21, 2026 Market Overview The crypto market demonstrated resilience this week amidst complex multi-directional pressures.
MEXC Alpha Trader Research Weekly | ETFs See Net Inflows for Two Consecutive Weeks as BTC Reclaims $65K: Bottoming Signal or False Breakout?
Week 3, July 2026
Reporting Period: July 15 – July 21, 2026
Data Cutoff: July 21, 2026
Market Overview
The crypto market demonstrated resilience this week amidst complex multi-directional pressures. Bitcoin initially consolidated within the $60,000–$62,000 range before stabilizing and mounting a rebound. Between July 20 and 21, BTC surged past the $65,000 threshold, peaking at $65,500–$65,800 to establish a new weekly high.
ETF flows are sending a clearly positive signal. As of July 18, Bitcoin Spot ETFs broke an eight-week streak of outflows totaling over $8 billion, recording net inflows of approximately $273 million over the past two weeks. This reversal is particularly significant: despite a substantial single-day outflow of $425 million on July 13, the subsequent four trading days saw consistent net inflows (Tuesday: $181 million; Wednesday: $107.8 million; Thursday: $79.15 million; Friday: $132.3 million), indicating synchronized improvement across multiple funds. Richard Galvin, Executive Chairman of crypto investment firm DACM, noted that after eight consecutive weeks of outflows, the past two weeks have confirmed a positive market shift.
Geopolitics remains the primary variable, yet market reactions are exhibiting subtle shifts. As of July 20, the U.S. military had conducted strikes on Iran for the ninth consecutive night, pushing Brent Crude oil above $90 per barrel intraday. Although Iran claimed that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had ceased entirely, subsequent signals of a willingness to negotiate prompted oil prices to retreat to around $88. In contrast to last week’s pattern—where surging oil prices triggered a sharp drop in BTC—Bitcoin has demonstrated notable resilience against declines this week, even amid escalating geopolitical tensions.
At the macro level, tensions over rate-hike expectations have intensified. Although the 0.4% month-over-month decline in U.S. June CPI briefly lowered the probability of a July rate hike, inflation concerns stemming from geopolitical conflicts have caused market expectations to fluctuate repeatedly. As of July 21, CME FedWatch data indicates a roughly 15% probability of a July rate hike, with market attention focused on the Fed's FOMC meeting scheduled for July 28–29.
On the regulatory front, the "CLARITY Act" has achieved significant progress. The White House has reached a consensus on the bill’s ethics provisions, removing obstacles to a vote before the Senate recess. Senate Majority Leader Thune intends to push for a full Senate vote, while Polymarket data estimates the probability of the bill’s passage at approximately 38%.
Overall, the market demonstrated stability this week, underpinned by ETF bottoming, the absorption of geopolitical risks, and regulatory tailwinds acting as catalysts. BTC successfully breached two key resistance levels: the 200-week moving average (approximately $63,300) and the 50-day moving average (approximately $65,026).
I. Key Developments in the Crypto Market
1. Institutional Capital: ETFs Halt Eight-Week Outflow Streak, Posting Net Inflows for Two Consecutive Weeks
BTC Spot ETFs have signaled a pivotal turning point. Following over two months of outflows totaling more than $8 billion, 13 BTC Spot ETFs recorded combined net inflows of approximately $273 million over the past two weeks, successfully reversing the previous eight-week streak of withdrawals.
Daily data reveals consistent net inflows throughout the past week: $181 million on Tuesday, $107.8 million on Wednesday, $79.15 million on Thursday, and $132.3 million on Friday. Fidelity’s FBTC played a significant role in the early rebound, attracting around $166 million, while ARKB recorded net inflows of about $91.8 million. Later, BlackRock’s IBIT recorded single-day inflows of $138.9 million. Meanwhile, ETH Spot ETFs demonstrated even stronger performance, with net inflows of $105.4 million last week, building on the previous week’s net inflows of $84.42 million.
However, potential risks remain significant. While total inflows over the past two weeks reached $273 million, this figure pales in comparison to the more than $8 billion in outflows recorded over the preceding eight weeks. Year-to-date in 2026, Bitcoin ETFs continue to show negative cumulative net inflows of approximately $5.4 billion. According to crypto analytics firm BRN, a sustained positive trend over several weeks is required to confirm that institutional capital is returning to the market in a structured manner.
2. Price Performance: BTC Reclaims the $65,000 Level
July 15-19: Bitcoin staged a gradual rebound into the $63,000–$64,000 range, effectively absorbing the market panic triggered by last week’s geopolitical shock. BTC moved back above the 200-week moving average (approximately $63,300), a critical threshold widely regarded as the dividing line between long-term bull and bear trends.
Markets Recap for July 20-21: Bitcoin surged past the $65,000 mark during the Asian trading session, reaching a weekly high in the $65,500–$65,800 range—its highest level in two weeks. However, significant resistance near $65,600 triggered a slight pullback. At the time of publication, Bitcoin remains quoted around $65,000.
Asset | Weekly Change | Price Range |
Bitcoin (BTC) | Approx. +5% | $62,000 – $65,800 |
Ethereum (ETH) | Approx. +8% | $1,700 – $1,922 |
Solana (SOL) | Approx. +2% – +4% | $74 – $82 |
Ripple (XRP) | Approx. +1% – +3% | $1.06 – $1.14 |
Total Market Cap | Approx. +2% – +4% | $2.10 – $2.22 Trillion |
Data source: MEXC, CoinMarketCap, CoinGecko
Technical Outlook: BTC has effectively absorbed market panic triggered by geopolitical tensions, successfully holding above the 200-week moving average (~$63,300) and the 50-day moving average (~$65,026). Intraday trading this week saw tests of the $66,350 level. In the short term, the $65,800–$66,000 zone forms key resistance. A breakout above this level, accompanied by increasing trading volume, is expected to drive prices toward the $67,300–$67,500 range. On the downside, primary support lies at $64,300–$64,500 (4-hour EMA20), followed by $63,700–$64,000 (MA30). A drop below the latter would challenge the short-term bullish structure. Regarding indicators, the RSI stands at approximately 59.3, and the MACD maintains a Golden Cross, suggesting the uptrend remains intact. However, future movements should be closely monitored for confirmation via trading volume.
3. Stablecoins: Market Contraction Persists Amid Unabated Capital Outflows
As of July 21, the total stablecoin market capitalization stood at approximately $310.0 billion, representing a decline of roughly $12.4 billion from its mid-May peak of $322.4 billion. In the past week alone, the market cap shrank by about $1.2 billion, extending the contraction trend that has been ongoing since May 17.
Performance among major stablecoins diverged significantly. USDT’s market cap reached approximately $184.0 billion, down 0.06% week-over-week and $5.4 billion from its 60-day high. USDC held steady at around $73.4 billion, with a slight 0.04% weekly decline and relatively mild outflows. Notably, Sky-issued USDS plummeted by 12.30% this week to $6.6 billion, signaling weakening confidence in certain stablecoins. Conversely, Global Dollar’s USDG defied the broader trend with a 9.08% surge, emerging as the week’s top performer and suggesting a shift of capital toward highly compliant, regulator-recognized assets.
Key Structural Signals: The current contraction in stablecoin supply, which began in mid-May, has not been accompanied by a synchronized sharp decline in Bitcoin or major altcoins. This divergence suggests that this contraction is not driven by typical “risk-off” sentiment.. Instead, the stablecoin market’s competitive landscape is being reshaped, with capital migrating from high-compliance-risk products to those recognized under the U.S. regulatory framework. This trend is expected to accelerate as the 2028 compliance deadline under the GENIUS Act approaches.
II. Global Asset Performance
1. Equity Markets: Divergent Earnings Season Results; Chip Stocks Lead Structural Rebound
This week, U.S. stock markets experienced modest declines amid the competing pressures of geopolitical tensions and earnings season. As of July 20:
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Closed at 51,839.26, down 0.93% for the week;
• S&P 500 Index: Closed at 7,443.28, down 1.55% for the week;
• Nasdaq Composite Index: Closed at 25,508.07, down 2.90% for the week.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Closed at 51,839.26, down 0.93% for the week;
• S&P 500 Index: Closed at 7,443.28, down 1.55% for the week;
• Nasdaq Composite Index: Closed at 25,508.07, down 2.90% for the week.
Chip stocks have emerged as the primary catalyst for this week’s market rebound. On July 20, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index gained 0.6% after falling into bear market territory the previous week. The optical communications sector led the rally, with Lumentum surging over 9%, Coherent rising more than 6%, and Marvell Technology advancing by over 3%. The memory chip segment also demonstrated robust performance, with SanDisk and Western Digital both climbing more than 2%, and Micron Technology edging up nearly 2%. Following an analysis of data center procurement channels, Morgan Stanley confirmed that the memory shortage persists and projects data center memory prices to increase by at least 25% quarter-over-quarter in Q3 2026.
AI infrastructure stocks staged a strong rebound. IREN surged over 19% in a single day, marking its largest gain since November 2024. This rally followed the company's announcement of new cloud service contracts totaling $2.8 billion with multiple AI developers, alongside an upward revision of its annualized AI cloud revenue target to exceed $4 billion by the end of 2026. Additionally, Hut8 rose more than 10%, while both Nebius and CoreWeave gained over 6%.
Index | Weekly Change | Core Drivers | On-Chain Mapping |
Nasdaq Composite Index | Approx. -2.90% | Chip stocks experienced a bear market rebound, but profit-taking pressure during earnings season weighed on overall index performance. | |
S&P 500 Index | Approx. -1.55% | Geopolitical tensions dampened risk appetite, leading to divergent performance between bank and chip stocks. | |
Dow Jones Industrial Average | Approx. -0.93% | Supported by value and energy stocks, the index demonstrated relatively strong resilience against downside pressure. |
2. Commodities: Geopolitical Tensions Lift Oil Prices; Gold and Silver Remain Range-Bound
The commodities market this week remained dominated by escalating US-Iran tensions. In mid-July, shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz fell to zero once again. While the US military continued strikes on Iranian targets, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched attacks on US military assets in the Middle East. Concurrently, Yemen’s Houthi forces announced a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia.
Crude Oil: This week, Brent crude tested the $90/barrel threshold, marking a cumulative rise of approximately 20.8% since late June, while WTI crude climbed into the $83–$84/barrel range. Intraday volatility remained high; on July 21, Brent surged 3% to $91.90/barrel before paring gains amid expectations of renewed U.S.-Iran talks, resulting in a "roller-coaster" market performance. Huatai Securities noted that while the severe supply shortage was temporarily alleviated following a temporary resumption of traffic through the strait for nearly a month, geopolitical uncertainty persists. Consequently, the firm maintains its forecast that Brent prices will average $90/barrel in Q3. With OECD strategic petroleum reserves at their lowest level since 2003, the market’s buffer has thinned, meaning even minor geopolitical conflicts could trigger sharp price swings.
Gold: This week, gold prices oscillated under the dual pressures of inflation hedging demand and high interest rates. As of July 21, spot gold closed at approximately $4,064/oz, up 1.42% intraday. Previously, prices were capped below the $4,000 threshold (closing at $3,982.83 on Monday) as escalating tensions in the Middle East intensified inflation concerns, reinforcing expectations that interest rates would remain higher for longer. With Cleveland Fed President Hammack joining officials supporting rate hikes, the market-implied probability of a December rate increase rose from 73% to 83%. Coupled with a stronger dollar and higher U.S. Treasury yields, this dynamic diminished gold’s safe-haven appeal. In the short term, despite signals of easing between the U.S. and Iran, the situation remains complex. Lacking trend-driving catalysts, gold and silver prices are expected to remain range-bound.
Silver Market Overview: Silver significantly outperformed Gold this week. On July 21, spot silver surged by as much as 5.21% intraday, breaking above the $59/oz threshold. As of 18:00, it was quoted at $59.089/oz, representing a 4.93% gain. This rally lifted the A-share precious metals sector in afternoon trading, with stocks such as Chifeng Gold, Shengda Resources, and Xingye Silver & Tin hitting their daily price limits. Supported by its industrial metal attributes and higher price elasticity, silver has captured a larger share of the geopolitical risk premium in this cycle.
Product | Weekly Performance | Key Events | On-Chain Mapping |
WTI Crude Oil | $82.5 - $84.6/barrel | Strait of Hormuz shipping volumes drop to zero; US military continues strikes on Iranian targets | |
Brent Crude Oil | $88 - $91.9/barrel | Iran closes the strait; OECD inventories fall to lowest level since 2003 | |
Gold | $3,982 - $4,067/oz | Geopolitical tensions lift inflation expectations, but shifting rate-hike outlooks cap gold prices | |
Silver | 56.9 - 59.1 USD/oz | Driven by industrial demand, silver's high price elasticity allowed it to outperform gold, surging up to 5.2% intraday and breaking the $59 level |
3. Bond Market Recap: Cooling Inflation Offers Brief Relief as Geopolitical Risks Push Yields Back to Highs
The bond market experienced significant volatility this week, caught in a tug-of-war between cooling inflation and escalating geopolitical risks. While June CPI data initially provided some relief, rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran reignited inflation fears, driving U.S. Treasury yields across all maturities back to elevated levels.
Inflation Data Provides Temporary Respite: The U.S. June CPI dropped 0.4% month-over-month, marking the first negative monthly reading in six years. Core CPI rose by 2.6% year-over-year, with both figures coming in below market expectations. This encouraging data prompted a brief decline in yields, with the 10-year and 2-year U.S. Treasury notes falling by 1 and 3 basis points, respectively, to close at 4.55% and 4.18%. This movement ended a two-week streak of gains and temporarily reduced market expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes.
Geopolitical Risks Drive Yield Rebound: The escalating U.S.-Iran conflict has pushed oil prices higher, reigniting inflation concerns. On Monday, July 20, U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board: the 2-year yield climbed 2.96 basis points to 4.204%, the 10-year rose 4.22 basis points to 4.592%, and the 30-year increased 4.45 basis points to 5.112%. Notably, the 10-year yield briefly touched an intraday high of 4.63%.
Widening Divergence in Rate-Hike Expectations: Market sentiment is becoming increasingly polarized. Former New York Fed President William Dudley argued that a robust labor market and AI-driven inflationary pressures could increase pressure for rate hikes this fall. In contrast, Morgan Stanley forecasts that the Fed will hold rates steady throughout the year, citing that tightening financial conditions have already exerted an effect equivalent to four rate hikes. Meanwhile, CME FedWatch data indicates the probability of a 25-basis-point hike in September has risen to 52%.
Yield Curve Steepening and Balance Sheet Dynamics: The spread between the 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasury yields stands at approximately 38 basis points, reflecting a continuing steepening of the yield curve. During a congressional hearing, Warsh reiterated his "zero tolerance" stance on high inflation. However, consistent with his preference for reducing forward guidance, he offered no specific outlook on the future rate path. Warsh also pledged to provide ample advance notice before adjusting the balance sheet reduction pace. The Fed’s balance sheet currently totals approximately $6.74 trillion.
U.S. Dollar Index: On July 21, the U.S. Dollar Index climbed 0.15% to 101.11, reaching a one-week high. While safe-haven demand fueled by geopolitical tensions and rate hike expectations bolstered the dollar, rising oil prices threaten to increase import costs and dampen economic growth, potentially capping further gains. The euro stabilized at approximately 1.142 against the greenback, as markets perceive current geopolitical risks as manageable, short-term disruptions.
MEXC’s tokenized Treasury Bond product, TLTON/USDT (linked to the TLT ETF), offers users a streamlined avenue to trade expectations on long-end U.S. Treasury yields. Recently, the TLT ETF’s Net Asset Value (NAV) stood at roughly $84, with a 30-day SEC yield of 5.03%. Additionally, the platform has listed several international ETF token trading pairs, including EEMON/USDT, EFAON/USDT, and INDAON/USDT.
III. In-Depth Analysis of Key Topics
Topic 1: ETF "Bottoming Signal": Can Two Consecutive Weeks of Net Inflows Break the "False Reversal" Curse?
The most significant highlight this week is the structural improvement in ETF flows.
Key Signal: Net Inflows Achieved for Two Consecutive Weeks Amid Extreme Pressure. Over the two weeks ending July 18, 13 Bitcoin Spot ETFs recorded cumulative net inflows of approximately $273 million, successfully reversing an eight-week streak of outflows that totaled over $8 billion. This turnaround is particularly notable: despite a massive single-day outflow of $425 million on July 13, the market stabilized quickly, posting net inflows over the next four trading days—$181 million on Tuesday, $107.8 million on Wednesday, $79.15 million on Thursday, and $132.3 million on Friday.
The breadth of this recovery is equally significant. Data from Santiment indicates that renewed demand is not confined to a single product but is spread across multiple issuers. Fidelity’s FBTC led the initial rebound with approximately $166 million in inflows, while Ark’s ARKB recorded about $91.8 million in net inflows. BlackRock’s IBIT subsequently saw a single-day inflow of $138.9 million. This synchronized improvement across multiple funds weakens the argument that the inflows were purely technical, suggesting instead that institutional capital is broadly re-engaging with the market.
Ethereum Spot ETFs also demonstrated strong performance. Following eight consecutive weeks of outflows, they recorded net inflows of $105.4 million last week, building on net inflows of $84.42 million in the previous week.
Richard Galvin, Executive Chairman of crypto investment firm DACM, observed: "Given their scale and broad market coverage, ETFs have become a key barometer for sentiment toward Bitcoin and the wider crypto industry. After eight consecutive weeks of outflows, confirmation over the past two weeks is a positive signal."
However, potential risks remain significant. The combined net inflow of $273 million over the past two weeks pales in comparison to the massive outflows exceeding $8 billion during the preceding eight weeks. Crypto analytics firm BRN emphasized: "First, watch ETF flows. A positive trend over multiple weeks would indicate that institutional capital is returning to the market in a structured manner."
Key Takeaways for Traders: While two consecutive weeks of net ETF inflows are encouraging, they are insufficient to confirm a trend reversal. The critical factor is whether the $65,500–$65,800 resistance zone can be decisively broken; this will determine if the current rebound signifies a genuine trend reversal or merely a brief "dead cat bounce." Furthermore, should geopolitical tensions escalate or expectations of rate hikes resurface, the sustainability of these ETF inflows will face a test.
Topic 2: The US-Iran Conflict – Establishing a "New Normal" or Continued Materialization of Tail Risks?
Over the past week, the nature of the US-Iran conflict has evolved from a "sudden shock" to "persistent background noise." As of July 20, the US military conducted strikes on Iran for the ninth consecutive night. Consequently, Brent Crude prices briefly surged to $91.90 per barrel, representing a cumulative gain of 20.8% since late June.
Tensions initially escalated sharply: Iran claimed that traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had halted completely, formally withdrew from the ceasefire protocol, and launched attacks on US military assets in the Middle East. However, signals of a willingness to negotiate subsequently caused oil prices to retreat to the $88–$89 range.
A subtle shift in market reaction: In contrast to the sharp decline in Bitcoin (BTC) previously triggered by Trump’s remarks about "taking over the strait," Bitcoin demonstrated notable resilience this week despite the conflict's escalation. On July 20, Bitcoin rebounded to a one-month high of $65,644. Analysis suggests Bitcoin is being influenced by two opposing forces: on one hand, rising oil prices and heightened inflation expectations are theoretically bearish for risk assets; on the other, Bitcoin has also benefited from capital inflows after decoupling from its previously strong correlation with tech stocks.
Giottus CEO Vikram Subburaj observed, "Nearly 6% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply last changed hands in the $58,000–$64,000 range. This substantial cost basis helps mitigate the risk of indiscriminate market sell-offs."
Key developments to monitor:
- Strait of Hormuz transit conditions: Should geopolitical tensions escalate, oil prices could surpass $100 per barrel, potentially triggering a spiral in inflation expectations.
- FOMC meeting (July 28–29): Geopolitical inflation risks may affect the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory. CME FedWatch data indicates that the implied probability of a July rate hike has climbed to 36%, a significant increase from 18% in early July.
- Validation of Bitcoin’s "Digital Gold" narrative: Amid recent geopolitical shocks, Bitcoin has demonstrated notable downside resilience, reinforcing its positioning as "digital gold."
Topic 3: The "CLARITY Act" – Legislative Window Narrows as Bitcoin’s “Safe-Haven” Narrative Strengthens
The "CLARITY Act" enters a critical voting phase this week. The bill previously passed the House on July 17, 2025, by a decisive 294-134 margin, and was advanced to the full Senate by the Banking Committee on May 14 with a 15-9 vote.
A Tight Legislative Window: With the House recessing on July 23 and the Senate expected to begin its summer break around August 7, only approximately 20 business days remain before the deadline. Failure to secure a full-chamber vote before the recess could delay the legislative process until 2030.
Passage Probability Analysis: Polymarket data estimates the likelihood of the bill passing in 2026 at 32%-40%. Despite Republicans holding 53 seats, opposition from Senators Josh Hawley and Rand Paul means leadership must secure support from at least seven Democrats to reach the 60-vote threshold required for cloture.
Three Core Disputes Remain Unresolved:
- Ethics Clauses: Concerns center on conflicts of interest involving officials holding cryptocurrency. Trump’s 2025 financial disclosure reveals crypto-asset-related income totaling approximately $1.4 billion (including royalties from the $TRUMP memecoin and World Liberty token sales), further intensifying the dispute.
- Section 604 Developer Protections: The National District Attorneys Association has noted that the wording of this provision may impede criminal investigations involving cryptocurrency.
- Stablecoin Yield Loophole: The banking industry argues that the bill contains loopholes permitting interest-like yields that exceed the limits established by the GENIUS Act.
Unique Impact on Bitcoin: As the SEC and CFTC have already classified Bitcoin as a commodity, its regulatory status is clear and independent of the CLARITY Act. Following the approval of Bitcoin Spot ETFs in early 2024, net inflows have reached $1.48 billion year-to-date in 2026, offering institutional investors a compliant investment channel unaffected by congressional legislative processes. With a fixed supply cap of 21 million, Bitcoin has emerged as the preferred safe-haven asset within the crypto space, particularly as other digital assets face regulatory uncertainty.
Trading Strategy: Should the bill pass by late July, it is poised to act as a key catalyst, supporting a BTC breakout toward the $68,000–$70,000 range. Conversely, a legislative block could trigger short-term profit-taking, eroding recent gains. Key attention should be directed toward Trump’s July 23 response to Warren’s demand for "public disclosure of holdings," as this will likely determine Democratic support and the bill's passage.
IV. Market Hotspot Focus
Rank | Core Keywords | Driver Logic Analysis | Related Assets |
1 | Two Consecutive Weeks of ETF Net Inflows | Institutional investors seized the dip as BTC retreated to the $60,000–$62,000 range. Major funds, including Fidelity (FBTC), ARK (ARKB), and BlackRock (IBIT), simultaneously increased holdings, effectively ending an eight-week streak of outflows. | |
2 | BTC Reclaims $65,000 | June CPI data showed negative month-over-month growth, alleviating rate-hike fears. Market confidence was further bolstered by the White House’s agreement on the CLARITY Act’s ethics provisions, while the 200-week moving average provided robust technical support. | BTC/USDT |
3 | Escalating U.S.-Iran Conflict | U.S. military strikes on Iranian targets continued for the ninth consecutive night. Iran announced a halt to all shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and formally withdrew from the ceasefire agreement, causing Brent Crude prices to briefly spike to $91.90/barrel. | BTC/USDT, OIL(WTI)USDT |
4 | CLARITY Act Voting Window | The White House reached an agreement on the ethics provisions, clearing legislative hurdles prior to the Senate recess. Polymarket prediction markets currently estimate approval odds at approximately 40%. | BTC/USDT |
5 | Diverging Rate Hike Expectations | A standoff has emerged between cooling June CPI data (reducing July rate hike odds to 15%) and surging oil prices driving inflation expectations higher (increasing September rate hike odds to 52%). Market divergence is intensifying ahead of the FOMC meeting. | BTC/USDT, TLTON/USDT |
V. Key Focus Areas for the Coming Week
Economic Calendar (Jul 22 – Jul 29, SGT)
Date | Event/Indicator | Market Impact | Tokenized Underlying |
Jul 22-28 | U.S.-Iran Geopolitical Developments | Escalation may drive oil prices higher and intensify BTC volatility | BTC/USDT, OIL(WTI)USDT |
Jul 24 (Fri) | U.S. July Markit Manufacturing/Services PMI (Preliminary) | Influences market expectations for the Fed's policy trajectory | BTC/USDT |
Jul 28-29 (Tue-Wed) | Fed July FOMC Interest Rate Decision | Key event of the week: Hawkish signals may prompt BTC to retest support, while dovish tones could challenge higher resistance levels | BTC/USDT, TLTON/USDT |
Ongoing Tracking | ETF Fund Flows | Three consecutive weeks of net inflows would confirm the return of institutional capital | |
Ongoing Tracking | BTC Key Resistance at $65,600 | A decisive breakout targets $67,000–$67,500; rejection likely leads to a retest of $64,000–$64,500 | BTC/USDT |
Ongoing Tracking | CLARITY Act Vote | Final voting window before Senate recess; results will dictate BTC's short-term direction | BTC/USDT |
VI. Platform Updates
1. July Proof of Reserves Released: BTC Reserve Ratio Rises to 281%
On July 20, MEXC officially released its Proof of Reserves (PoR) report for July 2026. The data reveals that the BTC reserve ratio increased from 269% in June to 281%, fully covering user holdings of 4,439.51 BTC. Additionally, reserve ratios for USDT, USDC, and ETH reached 119%, 115%, and 114%, respectively, ensuring all major assets remain securely above the 100% threshold. Built on Merkle Tree cryptographic verification technology, the MEXC PoR system enables users to independently verify that their personal balances are included in the platform’s reserves.
2. VVIP Loss Coverage Program 2.0 Is Now Live
The VVIP Loss Coverage Program 2.0 is running for a limited time from July 10 to July 30, featuring a total prize pool of up to 1,000,000 USDT. This updated program introduces three key enhancements: eligible VVIP users can receive same-day compensation for qualifying losses, with protection probabilities and caps determined by their VVIP tier; Elite VVIP users with a credit score of 800 or above can receive real-time compensation once protection is triggered; and eligible losing trades can earn lucky lotteries for an additional prize pool of 100,000 USDT.
As of July 10, the MEXC Futures insurance fund has surpassed 759 million USDT, ensuring robust security for your trading activities.
As of July 10, the MEXC Futures insurance fund has surpassed 759 million USDT, ensuring robust security for your trading activities.
3. U.S. Stock Asset Suite Continues to Expand
On July 16, MEXC officially listed five Ondo tokenized U.S. stock spot trading pairs, covering key supply chain sectors such as semiconductor and precision component manufacturing, industrial cooling systems, and AI data center power infrastructure. The newly added assets include STMicroelectronics (STMON/USDT), Fabrinet (FNON/USDT), Trane Technologies (TTON/USDT), Amphenol (APHON/USDT), and Quanta Services (PWRON/USDT). Trading for all pairs commenced at 13:30 UTC on the same day.
This expansion builds upon MEXC’s existing lineup of tokenized stocks, which includes SK Hynix (SKHYON/USDT), Halliburton (HALON/USDT), and Core Scientific (CORZON/USDT), as well as ETF trading pairs like the Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x ETF (SOXLON/USDT) and the Daily Semiconductor Bear 3x ETF (SOXSON/USDT).
Ondo tokenized assets are fully backed by underlying securities held by a a regulated custodial broker. This structure ensures that each token corresponds to genuine stock exposure, with dividend income automatically reflected in the token's value.
According to RootData's latest ranking of stock derivatives exchanges, MEXC secured the second position globally with a score of 91.6, trailing only Binance. Currently, MEXC supports futures for 46 U.S. stocks, boasting an open interest of approximately $93.515 million and a 24-hour trading volume of $284 million. Through a comprehensive evaluation across multiple dimensions—including trading volume, spreads, market depth, and costs—the platform continues to maintain its industry-leading status.
Reminder: RealStocks is subject to regional compliance regulations and is not available in all jurisdictions. Trading hours align with Nasdaq market sessions and is not available 24/7. Investors should be fully aware of the inherent risks associated with the U.S. stock market.
Disclaimer: This report is for informational and research purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Cryptocurrency prices are highly volatile, and geopolitical events or macroeconomic shifts may significantly impact the market. Investors should make independent decisions based on their individual risk tolerance. Any platform products or trading pairs mentioned herein are presented for objective data display only and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell.
Market Opportunity
Bitcoin Price(BTC)
$65,120.75
$65,120.75$65,120.75
USD
Bitcoin (BTC) Live Price Chart
This article is provided by MEXC for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency markets involve significant risk. Please conduct independent research or consult a qualified professional before making any investment decisions. The views expressed do not necessarily represent those of MEXC or its affiliates.
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Will Nonfarm Payroll Move Bitcoin Tonight?
Overview The U.S. June nonfarm payrolls report will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET on July 2, 2026. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics release schedule, this report is coming on Thursday
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Bitcoin Price Analysis: Has BTC Cleared the Danger Zone After $64K Surge?
Despite showing signs of short-term stabilization above a major support zone, Bitcoin’s downtrend might not be over yet. While momentum has improved on lower timeframes
JPMorgan Says Bitcoin’s Bigger Risk Is Permissioned Blockchains
JPMorgan says Bitcoin's biggest long-term risk isn't Strategy selling BTC—it's the rise of permissioned blockchains that could bypass public chains and crypto
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U.S. Stocks Weekly Report | Jul 11–Jul 17: CPI Plunges 3.5%, Top Three Banks Post Strongest Q2 Ever: Inflation Turning Point Combined with AI Profit Surge Opens Valuation Reset Window for Growth Stocks
On July 17, 2026, a rare macroeconomic combination unfolded intensively within the same week: The US June Consumer price index（CPI） annual rate stood at 3.5%, significantly lower than the expected 3.8
MEXC Alpha Trader Research Weekly | ETF Outflows End After 8 Weeks, but a $425M Sell-Off Raises the Question: Who Is Driving BTC?
Week 2 of July 2026Statistical Period: July 8, 2026 – July 14, 2026Data Cutoff: July 14, 2026Core NarrativeOver the past week, the crypto market experienced a dramatic reversal, shifting from a post-N
MEXC Alpha Trader Research Weekly | NFP Sparks a Rebound, but ETF Outflow Pressure Lingers: Can BTC Hold $63,000?
Week 1, July 2026Reporting Period: July 1–7, 2026Data Cutoff: July 7, 2026Core NarrativeOver the past week, the crypto market experienced a dramatic reversal, falling first before staging a strong reb
MEXC Alpha Trader Research Weekly | BTC Falls Below $60K as June ETF Outflows Hit Record Highs: How Far Is the Bottom?
Week 4 of June 2026Reporting period: June 24 – June 30, 2026Data Cutoff: June 30, 2026Core NarrativeOver the past week, the crypto market saw its sharpest sell-off since September 2024. On June 24, Bi
