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Prediction-Market

Prediction Markets are decentralized platforms where users trade shares based on the outcome of future events, ranging from elections to sports and crypto prices.By leveraging the "wisdom of the crowd," platforms like Polymarket provide highly accurate, censorship-resistant forecasting data. In 2026, these markets serve as a primary source of sentiment analysis and risk hedging. This tag covers the technology behind decentralized oracles, event-based liquidity, and the growing role of prediction markets in global information discovery.

890 Articles
Created: 2026/02/02 18:52
Updated: 2026/02/02 18:52
The History of Crypto Prediction Markets: How Polymarket and Kalshi Emerged as Winners in a Crowded Space

The History of Crypto Prediction Markets: How Polymarket and Kalshi Emerged as Winners in a Crowded Space

The post The History of Crypto Prediction Markets: How Polymarket and Kalshi Emerged as Winners in a Crowded Space appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Polymarket and Kalshi are now considered the top crypto prediction markets, but the space was once led by other players taking very different approaches. Intercontinental Exchange’s move to invest up to $2 billion into Polymarket and Kalshi’s $300 million financing have turned a once-niche corner of crypto into a mainstream trading category. “The real prize for ICE is not just clearing contracts but monetizing the data, selling odds as sentiment factors alongside rates and credit where every rumor pays a fee,” said Michael Ashley Schulman, partner and CIO at Running Point Capital Advisors, told Reuters. But the prediction market boom is the culmination of years of technical experiments, regulatory fights, and product re-thinking, not a passing trend. Where’s Augur and Gnosis? Long before Polymarket and Kalshi arrived, the decentralized prediction market sector was already crowded with Gnosis, which at its peak in August 2020 had over $85 million in total value locked, followed by Augur with over $13 million, per data from DefiLlama. Prediction Markets TVL Augur, unveiled during the ICO era and founded in 2014 by Joey Krug, Jack Peterson, and Jeremy Gardner, went live in 2018, promising decentralized prediction markets with a native reputation token (REP) and an oracle system for reporting outcomes. Augur Interface While the idea was solid on paper, early users quickly ran into practical problems. Third-party node services were uneven, and blockchain sync issues and high Ethereum gas fees in those days slowed markets. As Alchemy, a blockchain infrastructure firm that also offered services to Augur, explained in a blog post, initially Augur launched with a “free third-party node service that was slow, unreliable, and frequently provided incorrect blockchain data,” costing the project months of recovery work. Mike Garland, head of product at Alchemy, explained to The Defiant that Augur and Gnosis “were pioneers…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/10/19

Prediction Market Bettors Go All-in on a Bitcoin Drop Under $100K

Prediction Market Bettors Go All-in on a Bitcoin Drop Under $100K

The post Prediction Market Bettors Go All-in on a Bitcoin Drop Under $100K appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Over the past two weeks, bitcoin has shed 12.4% against the U.S. dollar and now sits 14.9% shy of its all-time high above $126,000. Social media’s been buzzing with chatter over bitcoin’s slide, while prediction platform Polymarket shows bettors pegging a 69% chance that BTC dips below $100,000 before 2026 rolls around. Bitcoin’s October Blues […] Source: https://news.bitcoin.com/prediction-market-bettors-go-all-in-on-a-bitcoin-drop-under-100k/

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/10/18

Robinhood Adds 80 New Tokens, Expanding U.S. Stocks Access for EU Users

Robinhood Adds 80 New Tokens, Expanding U.S. Stocks Access for EU Users

The post Robinhood Adds 80 New Tokens, Expanding U.S. Stocks Access for EU Users appeared first on Coinpedia Fintech News Tokenization is rapidly transforming the financial landscape by converting traditional assets into digital tokens. While institutional interest is on the rise, regulators are also stepping in to create clear rules and frameworks, to balance innovation with investor protection.  Robinhood Expands Tokenized U.S. Stocks in EU In a significant move, Robinhood has deployed 80 additional tokens …

Author: CoinPedia

2025/10/18

Prediction Markets Going Mainstream As DeFi’s Most Accessible Product?

Prediction Markets Going Mainstream As DeFi’s Most Accessible Product?

The post Prediction Markets Going Mainstream As DeFi’s Most Accessible Product? appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Mike Rychko, a researcher at prediction market infrastructure provider Azuro, thinks prediction markets are breaking into the mainstream — and the data appears to back him up. In a Thursday X post, Rychko argued that prediction markets are entering the real world beyond crypto and that their accessibility is likely to result in their success as the first decentralized finance (DeFi) product that achieves mass adoption. “Most people will never open a derivatives exchange,” Rychko wrote. “But ‘87% chance Mamdani wins’ — that’s a language anyone speaks.” He added that “humans are lazy by design” and crave a “clean, digestible signal,” and said that prediction markets meet that demand by turning complex forecasts into simple data points. “That simplicity is precisely why prediction markets will find mass adoption faster than most DeFi experiments ever did.” Earlier this month, crypto-powered prediction market Polymarket received a $2 billion investment from NYSE parent company, Intercontinental Exchange, at a $9 billion valuation. Reports in early September suggested that Polymarket aims for a US launch that could value the company as high as $10 billion, following the appointment of the US President’s son to the company’s board of directors. Founded in 2020, Polymarket allows users to wager stablecoins on real-world events, from elections to sports outcomes. The platform surged in popularity during the 2024 US presidential election, when its activity and trading volume hit record highs. Prediction markets enter the zeitgeist Rychko noted that prediction markets have reached unprecedented levels of mainstream visibility in recent months. Prediction market and Polymarket competitor Kalshi’s New York City screen, which shows a live feed of the market dedicated to the city’s mayoral election, has attracted widespread attention, with the video drawing nearly 13 million views on X alone. Source: Kalshi Rychko described the display as “a public signal”…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/10/18

CME to launch event contracts, challenging Kalshi and Polymarket

CME to launch event contracts, challenging Kalshi and Polymarket

The post CME to launch event contracts, challenging Kalshi and Polymarket appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Key Takeaways CME Group is entering the prediction markets industry by launching event contracts through a new partnership with FanDuel. This move challenges existing platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket by bringing CME’s traditional financial infrastructure to entertainment-based event betting. CME Group, a major derivatives exchange operator, is partnering with FanDuel to launch event-based financial contracts, marking the traditional finance giant’s entry into the prediction markets space. The collaboration positions CME to distribute new contracts through FanDuel’s platform, bringing traditional exchange infrastructure to entertainment-driven betting markets. FanDuel’s parent company, Flutter Entertainment, has been navigating regulatory landscapes in gambling and prediction markets. The move intensifies competition with existing prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, which have been battling for market dominance. Prediction market platforms face broader industry scrutiny, with some regulators labeling such markets as potential illegal gambling despite growing interest from traditional investors seeking exposure to entertainment-driven financial products. Source: https://cryptobriefing.com/cme-event-contracts-prediction-markets-kalshi-polymarket/

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/10/18

Polymarket Profits Cluster with Bots and Whales

Polymarket Profits Cluster with Bots and Whales

The post Polymarket Profits Cluster with Bots and Whales appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. To rank within the top 0.51% by profit and loss, an individual must realize gains surpassing $1,000 Simply executing 50 or more trades places a user ahead of 77% of the entire user base People are starting to view Polymarket as less of a place for simple betting and more as a sophisticated trading ground where experts profit from tiny price differences and perfect timing A week ago, it was reported that Polymarket, a prediction-market protocol, recently hit a $9 billion valuation following a large $2 billion investment. Interestingly, data and analysis shows that a remarkably small fraction of users achieve consistent profits. To rank within the top 0.51% by profit and loss, an individual must realize gains surpassing $1,000. Similarly, a trading volume exceeding $50,000 is required to be in the top 1.74% by that same metric. Also, simply executing 50 or more trades places a user ahead of 77% of the entire user base. Two strategies driving profit Right now, a strategy known as the “Endgame Sweep” is gaining attention. When an event outcome is nearly certain and market pricing is high (for instance, above 0.95), some users will buy in and wait for settlement to capture the remaining value. The reason this works is because many small-time traders get nervous or impatient and sell their contracts just before the event settles, for prices like 0.997 or 0.999. This leaves a small profit window for big whale investors or bots, who can buy these cheap contracts and instantly collect the full value. Sometimes, these large players might even spread fear or manipulate the price to scare smaller traders into selling early. Related: Polymarket Adds Bitcoin Deposits as Platform Targets $1 Billion Valuation Another notable arbitrage opportunity arises in multi-outcome prediction markets, where the combined implied probability of all…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/10/16

Where do prediction markets stand legally?

Where do prediction markets stand legally?

The post Where do prediction markets stand legally? appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Prediction markets are moving from the fringe into the mainstream. They have been satirized on South Park, made founders wealthy through venture funding, and even triggered controversy after a Nobel Prize leak. The two leaders in the space are Kalshi, a regulated U.S. exchange that settles contracts in dollars, and Polymarket, a decentralized crypto-based platform built on Polygon. Together they saw record trading volume of $1.44 billion in September, with Kalshi pulling ahead at 60% share. As their visibility grows, the spotlight is turning to a key issue: are prediction markets legal, and where? To understand the legal debate, it’s worth first breaking down how prediction markets work. What are prediction markets? Simply put, a prediction market is a marketplace for bets on future events such as election outcomes, sports, weather patterns, or financial trends. People buy and sell contracts based on the outcome of real-world events. The prices shift dynamically with collective belief, and every trade is an incentive-driven bet on the future. For instance, take a market for “Will Team A win football match?” On the platform, each event works like a tug-of-war between two sides — YES and NO — whose combined value always equals $1. If you believe Team A will win, you buy the YES contract; if you believe the opposite, you pick NO. As traders react to new data, rumors, or intuition, the prices shift in real time. So, if a contract is trading at $0.80, it indicates that the market thinks the event has an 80% chance of occurring. You earn a $1 payout for your stake if your prediction comes true. Some prediction markets are off-chain, centralized, and regulated like Kalshi. Others are decentralized and run on blockchain, like Polymarket, giving them more flexibility but less regulatory control. So why do they matter?…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/10/15

Roger Ver Could Avoid Jail Under Deferred Prosecution Deal to Pay $48 Million in Bitcoin Taxes

Roger Ver Could Avoid Jail Under Deferred Prosecution Deal to Pay $48 Million in Bitcoin Taxes

The post Roger Ver Could Avoid Jail Under Deferred Prosecution Deal to Pay $48 Million in Bitcoin Taxes appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup 💹 Trade with pro tools Fast execution, robust charts, clean risk controls. 👉 Open account → COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup 🚀 Smooth orders, clear control Advanced order types and market depth in one view. 👉 Create account → COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup 📈 Clarity in volatile markets Plan entries & exits, manage positions with discipline. 👉 Sign up → COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup ⚡ Speed, depth, reliability Execute confidently when timing matters. 👉 Open account → COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup 🧭 A focused workflow for traders Alerts, watchlists, and a repeatable process. 👉 Get started → COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup ✅ Data‑driven decisions Focus on process—not noise. 👉 Sign up → Roger Ver DOJ settlement resolves federal tax charges through a deferred prosecution agreement requiring a $48 million payment, avoiding prison if conditions are met. The deal addresses alleged non-reporting of crypto assets and follows arrest, extradition proceedings in Spain, and related lobbying disclosures. $48 million payment required to settle federal tax charges Deferred prosecution agreement avoids immediate jail time if terms are satisfied and payments are completed DOJ alleges 131,000 BTC holdings in 2014 and notes ties to political figures and lobbying expenditures Roger Ver DOJ settlement: Deferred prosecution requires $48 million tax payment to resolve federal charges without prison. Read COINOTAG’s summary; next steps. By COINOTAG — Published: October 14, 2025 · Updated: October 14, 2025 COINOTAG recommends • Professional traders group 💎 Join a professional trading community Work with senior traders, research‑backed setups, and risk‑first frameworks. 👉 Join the group → COINOTAG recommends • Professional traders group 📊 Transparent performance, real process Spot strategies with documented months of triple‑digit runs during strong trends; futures plans use defined R:R and sizing. 👉 Get access → COINOTAG recommends •…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/10/15

Robinhood looks for acquisition opportunities to boost its prediction markets offering

Robinhood looks for acquisition opportunities to boost its prediction markets offering

The post Robinhood looks for acquisition opportunities to boost its prediction markets offering appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Key Takeaways Robinhood is open to potential acquisitions or partnerships to expand its prediction markets business. The goal is to expand Robinhood’s product suite and strengthen engagement with retail users. Robinhood, a retail trading platform, is exploring potential acquisitions to expand its presence in prediction markets, where users can bet on real-world events. The partnership discussions come as Robinhood seeks to build on its retail-first approach in the growing prediction markets sector. Robinhood executives have expressed openness to acquisitions or deals in this space. Robinhood recently collaborated with Kalshi to launch a prediction markets hub, enabling users to engage in event-based contracts directly within its app. The integration allows users to participate in betting on outcomes across categories including politics and sports. Prediction markets are gaining traction as platforms integrate them to enhance user engagement with real-world outcomes. Source: https://cryptobriefing.com/robinhood-opendeal-prediction-markets-collaboration/

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/10/14

Norway Probes Nobel Peace Prize Bets on Polymarket

Norway Probes Nobel Peace Prize Bets on Polymarket

The post Norway Probes Nobel Peace Prize Bets on Polymarket appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The probe mainly centers on blockchain-based platform Polymarket, where one user reportedly made more than $30,000 after wagering on Machado’s victory. This quickly raised suspicions of leaked information. The investigation comes just as Polymarket and rival Kalshi surged in popularity and valuation after securing $2 billion and $300 million in funding respectively. Backed by the Intercontinental Exchange and now valued at $9 billion, Polymarket is expanding into the US after more regulatory clarity and CFTC approval. With over $1.4 billion in combined monthly trading volume, prediction markets are quickly changing from crypto experiments into powerful financial ecosystems. Nobel Bets Under Investigation Norwegian officials reportedly launched an investigation into potential espionage related to bets placed on prediction markets ahead of the announcement of the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner, María Corina Machado. According to a Bloomberg report, the Norwegian Nobel Institute, which assists the Nobel Committee in the selection process, began looking into whether confidential information about the winner was leaked and used for profit on the blockchain-based prediction platform Polymarket. Kristian Berg Harpviken, director of the institute, confirmed that authorities are investigating if someone “managed to steal information and made a lot of money from it.” Data from Polymarket showed that a user under the handle “dirtycup” earned over $30,000 after wagering roughly $70,000 on Machado’s victory. Bloomberg also reported that three accounts placing similar bets made a combined profit of around $90,000, which raised suspicions of insider access.  Nobel Peace Prize Winner odds (Source: Polymarket) Machado is a Venezuelan opposition leader and human rights advocate, and was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for her work promoting democracy in Venezuela. She has also been vocal about Bitcoin’s role in providing Venezuelans with financial freedom, and called it “a lifeline” amid the nation’s severe inflation and economic instability. María Corina Machado…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews

2025/10/14

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