Prediction-Market

Prediction Markets are decentralized platforms where users trade shares based on the outcome of future events, ranging from elections to sports and crypto prices.By leveraging the "wisdom of the crowd," platforms like Polymarket provide highly accurate, censorship-resistant forecasting data. In 2026, these markets serve as a primary source of sentiment analysis and risk hedging. This tag covers the technology behind decentralized oracles, event-based liquidity, and the growing role of prediction markets in global information discovery.

884 Articles
Created: 2026/02/02 18:52
Updated: 2026/02/02 18:52
Prediction Markets Call 2026 Split: Democrats Favored for House, GOP for Senate

Prediction Markets Call 2026 Split: Democrats Favored for House, GOP for Senate

The post Prediction Markets Call 2026 Split: Democrats Favored for House, GOP for Senate appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Prediction markets are serving a split-decision special: Democrats have the edge for the House in 2026, while Republicans hold the Senate lead, and the 2028 presidential board has JD Vance on top with Gavin Newsom chasing. 2026 Outlook—Democrats Eye House Control, Republicans Hold Senate Edge Data collected Friday, Sept. 12, 2025, shows a neat partisan […] Source: https://news.bitcoin.com/prediction-markets-call-2026-split-democrats-favored-for-house-gop-for-senate/

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Prediction Market PredictIt Launches in October—Here’s What to Expect

Prediction Market PredictIt Launches in October—Here’s What to Expect

The post Prediction Market PredictIt Launches in October—Here’s What to Expect appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Prediction market PredictIt, which started out as an academic platform focused on political forecasts, is preparing to launch a new exchange after getting the nod from the Commodities Futures Trading Commission. PredictIt, operated by the D.C.-based Aristole, said last week that the CFTC approved its applications to operate as both a designated contract market, or DCM, and derivatives clearing organization, or DCO. “With these approvals, Aristotle will launch a new exchange designed to provide U.S. traders with more diverse markets, deeper liquidity, and broader participation,” the company said last week in a press release. The company plans to expand beyond just political markets, but it hasn’t yet provided details on the types of specific markets it plans to roll out. “The market offerings will branch out as is the case with other DCMs,” an Aristotle spokesperson told Decrypt, referring to other regulated prediction markets like Kalshi. We’re not announcing other specific details right now,” the spokesperson said.  The company said the platform has grown to include more than 400,000 active users, but PredictIt faced a long journey getting these key approvals from U.S. regulators. The platform initially launched in 2014 as an academic, real-money prediction market operated by Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand. It has support and is run by Artistotle, Inc., a D.C.-based political technology and data firm founded in 1983 by John Artistotle Phillips. Phillips is CEO of Aristotle, Inc.. It hasn’t always been clear whether he holds the same title, but the spokesperson confirmed he does. The 2014 launch proceeded after the company obtained a no action letter from the CFTC, which granted it permission to “operate a not-for-profit market for event contracts, and to offer event contracts to U.S. persons, without registration as a designated contract market, foreign board of trade, or swap…

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Kristin Johnson Warns of Retail Risk, Regulatory Gaps in Prediction Markets

Kristin Johnson Warns of Retail Risk, Regulatory Gaps in Prediction Markets

The post Kristin Johnson Warns of Retail Risk, Regulatory Gaps in Prediction Markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Outgoing Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Commissioner Kristin N. Johnson warned that prediction markets pose increasing risks to retail investors. She cited a lack of oversight and regulatory clarity as primary concerns. In her farewell public address on Wednesday, Johnson voiced concern that some market participants are offering leveraged prediction market contracts to retail investors without clear regulatory boundaries. “As of today, we have too few guardrails and too little visibility into the prediction market landscape,” she said in a farewell speech at the Brookings Institution. “There is an urgent need for the commission to express in a clear voice our expectations related to these contracts,” she added. Johnson, appointed to the CFTC in 2022, said she was “deeply disappointed” the agency had failed to implement a rule addressing political event contracts. These contracts, which allow users to bet on outcomes of elections or sports events, have rapidly expanded in popularity and volume. Related: US regulator opens pathway for Americans to trade on offshore crypto exchanges Johnson slams license flipping loophole Johnson also criticized the growing “rent or buy my license” trend in derivatives markets. She said some firms seek licenses for traditional products, then pivot to self-certifying prediction market contracts once approved. “In other contexts, firms that have received a license quickly auction their newly minted license to others,” she said. Her remarks echoed broader concerns about consumer protection and market stability. Drawing parallels between the collapse of crypto firms like FTX and the 2008 financial crisis, she argued that governance and risk management failures often follow predictable patterns. “If we fail to rightly prioritize consumer protection or market stability on the road to capturing the benefits of innovation or growth, the results can be devastating,” Johnson said. She also warned that poor internal controls and compliance systems remain…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
CFTC Veteran Warns of Underregulated Prediction Markets

CFTC Veteran Warns of Underregulated Prediction Markets

The post CFTC Veteran Warns of Underregulated Prediction Markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Outgoing CFTC Commissioner Kristin Johnson ended her tenure with a warning on prediction markets. Her remarks come amid the sector’s boom in crypto and traditional finance (TradFi). However, Johnson’s comments suggested that prediction markets could become the next financial Wild West if left unchecked. Prediction Markets Boom, but Johnson Warns of ‘Too Few Guardrails’ Sponsored Sponsored Speaking Wednesday at the Brookings Institution, Johnson cautioned that there are too few guardrails and too little visibility into the prediction market space. While issuing this warning, the outgoing CFTC commissioner expressed concern that these platforms are beginning to capture unprecedented volumes of retail cash. Her remarks landed the same day the CFTC issued a no-action letter clearing Polymarket to reenter the US. As BeInCrypto reported, a $112 million acquisition of regulated exchange QCEX facilitates Polymarket’s return to the US, enabling a significant reversal from the platform’s previous ban. Meanwhile, Johnson’s exit mirrors the dilemma regulators face, with prediction markets no longer fringe experiments but fast-rising financial platforms. Companies like Kalshi and Polymarket are transforming odds into an asset class. They offer markets on elections, economic data, and even cultural events. Investors increasingly see them as tools for both speculation and collective forecasting. Sponsored Sponsored However, Johnson warned that innovation without safeguards risks repeating past crises. She invoked the 2022 collapses of Terra/Luna, Celsius, and the FTX exchange. Further, Johnson pointed to the dangers of crypto-celebrities building exchanges without governance. “We’ve seen this movie (or bankruptcy) before,” she said. According to the outgoing CFTC commissioner, underregulated firms could again funnel retail customers into devastating losses. More closely, Johnson flagged the trend of firms renting or buying licenses to fast-track event contracts, only to pivot into new products with minimal oversight. Sponsored Sponsored She framed consumer protection and market stability as the twin pillars of…

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From Wisdom of Crowds to Manipulation Risks

From Wisdom of Crowds to Manipulation Risks

The post From Wisdom of Crowds to Manipulation Risks appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Prediction markets are rising strongly, from the hundreds of millions of dollars raised by Kalshi and Polymarket to their growing applications across crypto and traditional finance.  Considered a new asset class, prediction markets promise to change how people consume information — instead of reading headlines, they will look at odds to assess probabilities. Behind this enormous potential, however, lie the risks of regulation, manipulation, and herd behavior, forcing investors to remain cautious in the face of this “data wave.” When Prediction Markets Become “An Asset Class” Prediction markets are emerging as forecasting tools and a new asset class within the crypto ecosystem. Platforms and venture funds are beginning to bet on commoditizing information and probabilities. Sponsored Sponsored This has triggered a “prediction market war,” with massive fundraising rounds, backing from top venture capital firms, and expansion into new use cases — all fueling competition. It shows how the market is shifting from “news” to “odds” as a source of value. Comparison between Polymarket & Kalshi platforms. Source: Delphi Digital Investors increasingly view prediction markets as a strategic asset class, not just entertainment or research products. While this competition accelerates innovation, it also introduces systemic risks if the business models are not yet sustainable. Many community members call this the “next big wave” of the current cycle. They argue that the next generation of users won’t read headlines anymore but will “check the odds.” In theory, prediction markets work well because they aggregate scattered information from many participants and turn it into a number representing collective wisdom — sometimes even more accurate than expert forecasts. This explains why protocols and projects focused on prediction highlight the “wisdom of crowds” advantage in pricing event probabilities. On the other hand, this advantage only materializes when the market has enough liquidity, transparency, and protection…

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The $3M Star Wars Lightsaber That Shows Why Information Is the Next Big Asset Class

The $3M Star Wars Lightsaber That Shows Why Information Is the Next Big Asset Class

The post The $3M Star Wars Lightsaber That Shows Why Information Is the Next Big Asset Class appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. About the Author Loxley Fernandes is CEO at Dastan, the parent company of Myriad, Rug Radio, and Decrypt. He served as CEO of Rug Radio before co-founding Dastan. Prior to Dastan he had spent over a decade as a serial entrepreneur, founder and operator with an emphasis on financial technologies that advanced the direct to consumer movement. When Darth Vader’s lightsaber goes up for auction this week, all eyes will be on the price tag. Memorabilia vendor Propstore estimates the saber (used in the “Star Wars” films “The Empire Strikes Back” and “Return of the Jedi”) could fetch between $1 million and $3 million. For collectors, it’s a holy grail artifact. For one bidder, it may be the ultimate trophy. But for everyone else? The moment the gavel falls, the story is over. Unless, of course, the real story isn’t the sale itself, but the market that could form around it.  The Auction Is Just the Beginning The sale of Vader’s saber is more than a collectible transfer. It’s a signal. A data point that tells collectors, auction houses, and investors what cultural artifacts are worth. But it’s a signal that only arrives once, at the closing hammer. Until then, we’re left with speculation: Will it break $3 million? Will it set a new record for a “Star Wars” prop? How much cultural cachet does Vader command compared to Luke or Han? These are the kinds of questions prediction markets are built to answer. Turning Belief Into a Trade In a prediction market, an auction like this becomes a tradeable event. Imagine markets for: “Will Darth Vader’s lightsaber sell above $3M?” “Will it beat the record for most expensive ‘Star Wars’ collectible?” Anyone, anywhere, could back their conviction with real money. A film historian who knows the scarcity of…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Crypto.com, Underdog to launch prediction markets where sports betting is still banned

Crypto.com, Underdog to launch prediction markets where sports betting is still banned

The post Crypto.com, Underdog to launch prediction markets where sports betting is still banned appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Crypto.com and Underdog are launching sports prediction markets across 16 U.S. states where gambling on sports is still banned. They’re building a new system that dodges gaming regulators by not calling it betting. Instead, it’s a tradeable contract based on game outcomes, and yes, it’s real money. The structure is simple. Crypto.com’s U.S.-registered derivatives arm, CDNA, will provide the infrastructure. Underdog will run the front-end, where users actually place the trades, using its existing app. There will be no sportsbooks, no odds from a bookmaker, and no need for state betting licenses. Everything runs on pricing from market activity alone. The more people buy into an outcome, the more expensive it gets. If you sell at the right time, you profit. If your outcome wins and the market agrees, you profit. No one takes your bet, because it’s not a bet, it’s a contract. Underdog moves first while others circle the space Underdog is the first sports gaming platform to fully step into this kind of setup. It’s a market space that blends the mechanics of crypto, finance, and sports into a single tradeable product. CEO Jeremy Levine said on CNBC’s Worldwide Exchange that “prediction markets are one of the most exciting developments we’ve seen in a long time,” and added, “While still new and evolving, one thing is clear; the future of prediction markets is going to be about sports, and no one does sports better than Underdog.” Others are watching closely. Platforms like Robinhood, Kalshi, and Polymarket already offer event-based contracts tied to sports, but none have the kind of reach or existing user base that Underdog has in fantasy gaming. On top of that, FanDuel, which is owned by Flutter, recently announced a partnership with CME Group to offer similar financial products. DraftKings boss Jason Robins has…

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Crypto.com Expands Into US Sports With New Prediction Service

Crypto.com Expands Into US Sports With New Prediction Service

The post Crypto.com Expands Into US Sports With New Prediction Service appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Crypto.com has partnered with prediction market platform Underdog, marking a major expansion of its offerings beyond crypto trading Users can trade contracts based on predicted sports outcomes (ranging across NFL, college football, NBA, MLB, and more) using a market-driven model instead of fixed odds This isn’t the first time Crypto.com had dabbled in sports, since the company first launched its Sports Event Trading product nationwide in late 2024, under the CFTC’s Crypto.com has partnered with prediction market platform Underdog to launch sports prediction markets in 16 US states, marking a major expansion of its offerings beyond crypto trading. How Does the New Sports Prediction Market Work? Users can trade contracts based on predicted sports outcomes (ranging across NFL, college football, NBA, MLB, and more) using a market-driven model instead of fixed odds. It’s a fusion of finance and fandom, where supply and demand set the price of a prediction. This isn’t the first time Crypto.com had dabbled in sports since the company first launched its Sports Event Trading product nationwide in late 2024, under the oversight of the CFTC (Commodity Futures Trading Commission). That was one of the first federally regulated platforms of its kind. Related: Truth Social to integrate CRO payments in massive Trump Media, Crypto.com deal As for Underdog, it has become the first fantasy sports operator to formally enter prediction markets. For Crypto.com, the expanded reach and Underdog’s sports infrastructure create a powerful combination. Still, not everything was smooth for the cryptocurrency company. Earlier this year, Ohio regulators ordered Crypto.com (alongside Kalshi and Robinhood) to cease sports prediction offerings within the state over legal concerns. In some other states, the legal footing of these products remains a gray area. Aligning with Underdog ties crypto exposure to fan engagement, potentially migrating users into Crypto.com’s exchange and DeFi products.…

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Underdog, Crypto.com Launch Sports Prediction Market in US

Underdog, Crypto.com Launch Sports Prediction Market in US

The post Underdog, Crypto.com Launch Sports Prediction Market in US appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Underdog and Crypto.com/Derivatives North America (CDNA) have partnered to offer federally regulated sports event contracts to U.S. customers through the Underdog app. CFTC-Regulated Sports Event Contracts Now Offered on Underdog The agreement makes CDNA’s prediction market contracts available within Underdog’s platform. These contracts allow users to trade on the outcomes of professional and college sports […] Source: https://news.bitcoin.com/underdog-crypto-com-launch-sports-prediction-market-in-us/

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Crypto prediction markets open ‘Trump out’ bet amid death rumors

Crypto prediction markets open ‘Trump out’ bet amid death rumors

The post Crypto prediction markets open ‘Trump out’ bet amid death rumors appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Crypto prediction markets are now taking bets on Donald Trump being “out as president” by the end of the year after rumors of poor health and a number of photos in which he looked particularly frail led to speculation around his possible impending death. The bets were opened by rival predictions markets Kalshi and Polymarket on August 30, and September 1, respectively, and currently give trump an 9%-10% “chance” of leaving the White House before 2026. The timing suggests the two crypto firms are trying to capitalize on rumors of Trump’s death that spread across X last weekend. the betting platforms can’t open markets on Trump’s death for obvious reasons, but Kalshi just so happened to open up a “Trump out as President” market on Saturday pic.twitter.com/fnpFlBoUNe — Molly White (@molly0xFFF) September 2, 2025 Read more: Crypto traders ‘talking to lawyers’ over Polymarket’s Zelenskyy suit bet The rumors were stoked by recent pictures of Trump’s bruised hand. However, back in July, the White House claimed this bruising was actually due to chronic venous insufficiency that stemmed from  “frequent handshaking and the use of aspirin.” Every year, roughly 150,000 new patients are diagnosed with the disease that can cause “a diminished quality of life and loss of work productivity,” with symptoms including “pain, leg swelling, pruritus, skin discoloration, and limb heaviness.” On August 31, Trump also uploaded an image to Truth Social of him playing golf with Jon Gruden, which led to accusations of him posting old photos. This is based on the clothes Gruden is pictured wearing that match another golf trip he shared photos of on August 23. Gruden’s golfing attire on August 23 matches the clothes he wore in Trump’s photo. For a few days, Trump disappeared from public view, but was eventually pictured visiting his Virginia Club…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews